BITCOIN

Nothing fancy here, this chart of the Bitcoin Trust is the GBTC, and it has some interesting attributes. While the price seems to have found a range the oscillators are showing some positives, the OBV and a trend line in the AD which would constitute a buy signal of sorts if it is broken to the upside and it is sure to be, that’s why they call them oscillators.

The width of the range is a point maybe, which from the 5 level amounts to maybe 20%?? and while it ain’t much it may be more than you will get with the S&P this year, but not as much as a low dollar high risk investment might typically yield, IF THE BULLISH SIGNAL works out. That red line is bound to be crossed, if there is more to it than that we won’t know for a while.

I have been reading small items here and there which sound supportive of some movement in this sector. And I wonder if the forex system is about to blow up, did you know there are two types of derivatives (basically) interest rate and currency, and that the currency derivatives are mostly not registered, (while about half the interest rate derivatives are)

My theory is that while we tend to feel consternation over the amount of debt central banks have created we tend to ignore the devaluation of currency in the aggregate, because the forex system only speaks to this market in pairs. So we call the dollar the cleanest dirty shirt, etc. The only way to get at this devaluation is to check the credit ratings of the countries, but those are often not marked to market until after the fact, I also think if I am correct that the US will commence selling it’s debt at a steep discount because they cannot afford to pay higher interest rates, and they will allow the dollar to do their dirty work for them. This is of little consequence to domestic holders of bond paper, they don’t have to negotiate the currency exchange markets to buy and sell.

And what is the point if foreign capital stays out of the US dollar market (stocks and bonds) if various EMs are writing debt in US dollars, (Turkey and Argentina – which has already gotten IMF help with its 100 year US dollar bonds; many were ostensibly sold to US pension funds – we, the US, controls the IMF so ponder that)

I expect bitcoin to function as electronic barter; a guy has two chickens and wants to trade for one pig. You don’t need forex for that even if both parties are miles apart. To do that bitcoin has to divorce itself entirely from the currency market, while I feel confident gold can do that, crypto might face more scrutiny. It needs a higher degree of sophistication. What it lacks in that regard it more than makes up for in speed and range. In the next crisis bitcoin could be the only instant transaction service available. From a chartists point of view there is a trade here.