Waste Deep in the Big Muddy

when you're up to your neck in alligators, it's hard to remember that your initial objective was to drain the swamp It's tough being in over your head, so you want a lot of people around you, good people. The segway this week is Operation Twist. Lots of charts, from the Feds targeting of the …

Tuesday Slam and the Jerome Algo

Resistance at the lower trend line should come into play. and then 01/15

The Set-UP, January 8th (new bear market warning!!) Jan. 9th followup

for strictly educational purposes okay? 324 may be the top for a while. When the SPY didn't get overbought on a relief rally it set off all sorts of sirens. Yesterdays bland BULLISH! opening may be a foreshadowing. Today seems to have similar characteristics. Trend lines when they get over extended often act like magnets …

Update January 7

The questions here are 1) Is Fed out of ammo here unless they go 100B, or standing REPO market order. 2) Do the buyers want lower prices, how far are they willing to go - that 320 level is critical, break that and we have some air underneath this market. 3) Is this war with …

IRAN!! Chill out dudes…

America is getting pushed around in Iraq, and killing one of Iran's leaders was the least provocative thing the US could do. Trump has it right there, but he knows. He gave up Syria to Russia, something Hillary promised would never happen, and John Bolton agrees with that. We are in a period of American …

Hostilities Break Out: Bear Market could follow. I did say that Trump would NUKE IRAN?? See 2020 Predictions

The market has three ways to go, up, down or sideways. Traders respect that last one is difficult to trade, with the VIX at lows, option premium is not high enough to warrant selling. The Bears can hold positions, (never short a quiet market) but those maintenance costs add up. In addition to up there …

Real Time Stock Market Action

In the next chart I break down the short term trend lines which holds the key to all this. That bottom trend line since October covers all of Jerome's REPO madness. After going the month of November without an oversold reading the market pulled back 3% and did that all in one day pretty much. …

BRASH PREDICTIONS:

We have a lot of charts here. You should see the walls of his room, "Kid with a Ruler". I asked him what is the top chart to follow this year, and he said, The VIX MIRROR. When Jerome put on the REPO robes, that signals that this market is unwinding temporally, that is time …

Some 2020 Predictions.

While markets rally on the talk of impeachment, you have to wonder? What if the president were to leave office? No more tariff wars, surreptitiously targeting companies for punishment, and reward? Business planning takes years, and you can take apart a plan with one tweet? Nancy Pelosi should have been Time Person of the Year, …

A new plateau with commentary

SPY broke out of its range today, not decisively, but this is all documented. The momentum players trade take it higher, and the money follows, the Jerome Powell PUT which sees to it that the market never goes down. Whatever level you can it take it to, the money will fill in behind. We are …

Trader Talk: Bear Market Hostilities PTII update 1212

If OBV (buyers) can lift it above the redline they can certainly do 316 or the top of the channel. Depending on how long it takes maybe higher. Right now on the intraday the AD has come back but the buyers are not involved. From the above I wouldn't expect the AD to show you …

Live from the front lines. Bear Market hostilities break out! (update 1204)

This writer continues to amaze over the markets obsession with the Trade talks, (or walking us back to the pre-tariff era, which the trade wars ended) but there is another view. Why Trade talks are really important. China imports 100M BBLs of oil a month from the US, pumped from the ground using easy credit, …

Interview with Tad Rivelle, notes on the capital formation process (annotated)

DAS INTERVIEW«A Liquidity Crisis Is All but Inevitable»Tad Rivelle, Chief Investment Officer of the Californian bond house TCW, doubts that the Central Banks can prevent the impending economic downturn. He spots increasing signs of stress in the credit sector and recommends holding safe assets to be prepared for turmoil in the financial markets. Christoph Gisiger25.11.2019, …

Driller(ing) Down in the Yield Curve (update 1127)

A comment over at The Daily Gold got we wondering, is there some good measure of how much effect on the Yield Curve, the Fed Rate Cuts have had?? So I did something which makes Kid with a Ruler bark like a dog and run out in the street and chase cars. I put up …

Should I Stay or Should I Go…

Courtesy of the Clash.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN1WwnEDWAM I have offhand plans to depart USofA. A lot, maybe all of it depends not on Donald Trump but the people who vote for him. How far are they going to take this? Then the market crash seems imminent, and it always does and part of me agrees with that …

Yield Curve non-reinversion of 94 Simplified

From the analysts seat the thing to watch is ROC. Rate of Change is very simple, and does not rely on any interpretation of price action volume or such. It seems clear the 98 rate cut decisions threw accelerated the YC which inverted. That level, about 600 is very similar to what the ROC in …

Yield Curve History (Update 11/06) incl PREQUEL to “Yield Curve Intolerant”

We could already have established a benchmark on the YC at around that historic .2 level. The hidden signal here is the ROC, or Rate of Change. Circa 94 the ROC was a modest 200. In the current situation it has already hit 600 which is still much lower than the alarm bell readings in …

End of the week recap, 0111

There were a couple blips this week which saw the market fail to get overbought on strong rallies. When trend lines grow old they tend to define their growth rate and prices often climb around them like a vine. The orange channel is my best estimation of the current situation. With the current rate of …

COPPER!!(!) Bull or Bear??

https://elliottwave5.com/category/miscellaneous/copper/ Will update this later https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=5219 Plans to deconstruct this and it won't be pretty