In Old Tools I kicked around the inflation issue. Anecdotal evidence is always popular. Here are the charts to help make the case, whatever that might be, for or against. The financial firms are buying up XES, because? Gasoline is $4 a gallon and that is a bullish fundamental. The money flows are not that … Continue reading Inflation: Truth or Dare
Old Tools
The XAU to Dow Industrials, ratio called the turn at 2000 highs in the market. The XAU is a measure of gold mining companies, an option chain without a tradeable index. The reason for using this is history, there is more on the left side of the chart, and secondly the XAU is not subject … Continue reading Old Tools
Hunting the Great White Way
The caption here might be "Give it to me Joe, right between the eyes.." Throughout this drama the Trump allies are always ready to play the foils. Plowing through cardboard obstacles in the rise to the top, is also what gives Wall Street the bends. In previous posts I wrote about White Monday, the anti-dystopian … Continue reading Hunting the Great White Way
One Minute Moves
After a repeating pattern of dark cloud covers, in various forms, and double tops on green shadows, the market rise to daily 1% immortality took a breather. I know you are asking why didn't the white support line hold early in the day and it did later? Simple, the money was all over the place, … Continue reading One Minute Moves
Second Best Shot at Gold/Silver
Lots of moving parts here to review: 1) When equities are risk on, money moves out of Precious Metals and into stocks. 2) Gold is inversely correlated to rising bond yields and a rising dollar. 3) Gold is an inflation hedge, ostensibly. 4) With the introduction of the GLD ETF, gold trades more like a … Continue reading Second Best Shot at Gold/Silver
My Best Shot on Gold
Gold bugs and technicians are looking for clues to the bottom. After all the monetary base is blowing up globally, and yields and the dollar are headwinds to the precious metals. This chart is pretty noisy do bear with. The high in price on the left resembles the high on the right. Fundamentally both are … Continue reading My Best Shot on Gold
Inflection Point Update March 25th
There were two widening trend lines in the ONE minute, something we used to see a lot more of, and the general result was the extension into NO MANS LAND, or sideways action. That event was usually resolved by a bullish move higher, because, we were in a bull market. Let's give this a chance … Continue reading Inflection Point Update March 25th
A river of money, a fish swimming upstream, and a bear
The upper white line has been breached at the highs. The left side of the top is the source of the line, another one minute triple top. This line has symmetry as they say. The issue here is the money bowl. Is it forming? A break of the money lows would end the upwelling rise … Continue reading A river of money, a fish swimming upstream, and a bear
Fed Measling
Clear from the get go that not saying certain things was the markets "secret" agenda in this FOMC meeting. Let's pretend Powell is puppet of Wall Street for the moment. I thought they would save their AMMO to fire, and they did. While the money flows were ripping, the futures were dipping and the 1 … Continue reading Fed Measling
You don’t see this every day
The One Minute trend line popped up in the first two bars but did not confirm for a few hours, then the line was walked up and down without showing much character. Finally they went down and tried to rally back but failed to remain above the 1 minute line for more than a few … Continue reading You don’t see this every day
The Money Rides to the Rescue?
The selling didn't really end, but the prices did stage a return to the highs. In classic terms that is a divergence in money flows. Distribution at the top. Here's why in a monied market signs of impending slowdown don't always work out that way. This example in 2019 (when things were normal) you can … Continue reading The Money Rides to the Rescue?
This horse is on the gam(bit)
In Horse Racing when a horse breaks on the bit he is fractious and hard to control and expends his energy in the early stages of the race and has nothing left for the finish. A gambit is an opening move like in chess designed to gain an advantage. A boat race on the other … Continue reading This horse is on the gam(bit)
Looking at the bounce in Gold
The 2011 chart of Gold v Silver offers some help. The reversal was sharp, and it correlates with a top in UST5Y yields and the YC2Y. We might expect this one to be sharp as well while gold remains oversold. Gold can bounce back to the 50dma, with no alteration in the fundamentals. Now we … Continue reading Looking at the bounce in Gold
Another day, another market
Suddenly! Gold shot up 2% along with stocks (ALL-IN-ONE) and bond fund ETFs finally converted some of those money flows into buying. This a complicated narrative, so here we go. Fall of 2019 the Fed announces 60B in QE, they also lowered FFR, while the markets were at their highs and this was the result. … Continue reading Another day, another market
RESISTANCE ABOVE
This go around the market is testing resistance rather than support, a subtle psychological shift. If they fail to make new highs, the Bear market will assert itself. Think of this market like the upcoming earnings annoucement in which the stock buyers run up the price of the stock ahead of the date, on over … Continue reading RESISTANCE ABOVE
The Disorderly Orderly PtII
WSJ interviewed Powell yesterday and since Powell already appeared in front of the Senate and the FOMC is the middle of the month, let's say somebody thought it was important to set a few things straight. Through all of this I do not recall the question about Yield Curve Control. If that was asked, Powell … Continue reading The Disorderly Orderly PtII
Inauguration Day
It isn't a great trend line, but there were three points and I connected them. Yellow Arrows. Price tested the line and rejected it at the first Red Arrow, the rebounded for a second test, rejected shortly and finally got through on the 4th test, actually the 7th test of the line. The mony flows … Continue reading Inauguration Day
Despite the panic, shouting, screaming, and screeching of tires, nobody was hurt in this accident (so far)
Watching the action today, I thought man we are really screwed. Jerome and the Fed keep shrugging things off, inflation, who cares, bring it on ? Yields rising, might be a good thing Even the brief liquidity moment in the bond market. Non sequitur. Sure enough if you focus on the month, March isn't so … Continue reading Despite the panic, shouting, screaming, and screeching of tires, nobody was hurt in this accident (so far)
Yields and Rate of Change
Deep in the vault here is a piece I did on Yield Curve De-Inversion. I found out what everyone knows, when the Yield Curve inverts and then recovers, the stock market goes into decline. Now what everyone knows isn't worth much is it? Maybe this time is different. I put the Five Year US Treasury … Continue reading Yields and Rate of Change
Paths of Glory
We have to take the Anthill... Bonus Gold Charts at the bottom.. We're going to do this a bit differently. Normally we have support levels, which invariably are broken on the short term charts but rebound in time to save the Bulls. This time we lay down the gauntlet. Those white lines are where the … Continue reading Paths of Glory
A Simple Desultory Philipic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_u2AI7ZWAk&authuser=0 Take it from the mess in his office, that Stan Drunkenmiller is focused. Chaos provides clarity, the one thing that makes you consider what's' really important... No room for sentimentality, or bourgeois norms still I wonder if he is right about China. Can we trust their GDP numbers??.. The casual viewer will suppose that … Continue reading A Simple Desultory Philipic
Early Call on OIL Services (XES)
There was a lot of inaugural enthusiasm the last few days, and relief that the ceremony come off without any problems. Meanwhile maybe prices have gotten ahead of themselves. To go down the list here, the analysts are all pounding the table on the CYCLICALS, and when they do that with such a dubious fundamental … Continue reading Early Call on OIL Services (XES)
Twenty Zero, Twenty One
End of the year stock market tax loss selling is occuring, probably, but the ongoing shortage in stocks relative to the money available to buy (or borrow) available shares obscures the evidence. The measure of this buying and selling is Accumulation and Distribution, A/D. Before the massive global money pumping mania, these money flows were … Continue reading Twenty Zero, Twenty One
Condensed Version of the late 94′ Bull Market Liftoff
The moment in time where the process will mirror the 94' Bull Market Liftoff, gets a bit closer with each trading day. Caveats: ONE) I do not really expect to see a sharp drop in the A/D line related to year end selling. The A/D line has in the modern context become an indicator of … Continue reading Condensed Version of the late 94′ Bull Market Liftoff
Bad news Friday (August 9th, 2020)
Palladium is a precious industrial metal used in automobile catalytic converters. The market for these things applies equally to used cars as well as new. While OEM cats are very good, after market cats are good for maybe a few years. They come in all prices ranges. Some analysts believe these side markets, Palladium and … Continue reading Bad news Friday (August 9th, 2020)
