Lyrics from the Doors, "The End.." Following some charts show trend changes worth considering. No real problem here, not hard to see the Bullish case. The buyers keep the price hovering above the 50dma, nobody wants to give these shares up. The real issue is what's driving this market, and that takes us to bonds. … Continue reading Weird Scenes Inside the Gold Mine
The VIX is an oscillator which trades like a stock. There have been sharp spikes the last two years around the start of the year. This is tradeable through the VXX. Now for the mirror image outcome. To follow up the interim bottom in the VIX may have been right here. The chart below is … Continue reading Through the VIX Looking Glass (with notes on the new TET offensive in the Middle East)
The line in the water was crossed, again and again. Since technical lines of support resistance tend to be hard lines, this sort of fuzzy logic must seem confusing to newcomers to the field of technical analysis. A full explanation to follow We keep returning to this level, we may as well assume it is … Continue reading Jumping the Shark (Updated with FOMC notes!) special 9/18 commentary
This is the prehistoric history of the Yield Curve. The period between 90 and 00' was bullish for stocks, although YC was all over the place. 94' was the great bond massacre and it heralded a somewhat permanent new low level to the YC which inverted in 98', and that set up the spike in … Continue reading Yield Curve History
A copy of the A/D line transposed at the bottom of the chart shows by extension where the money would have been if the lag in July was erased. The money lagged and it distorted the subsequent angle of the chart, distracting chartists from it's true parabolic meaning. See where the long blue line ends … Continue reading Retake on the money (parabolic?)
There are a number of ways to check for signs of diminishing returns in the arena of monetary stimulus. Most classic economists would look at growth, GDP, and other data. Here's one that portends badly for consumers. Since 2007 Natural Gas has been a free ride. Some of you have it, some of you don't, … Continue reading Natural Gas and the end of the House of Sod / updated 9/17
Okay the money is coming down the conveyor belt, more than our intrepid heroines can either package or consume. But this is really more like the game Whack-a-mole and not really about hitting the mole on the head, but filling the gap when the Mole opens a slight window, these girls shove a chocolate (read … Continue reading I Love Lucy Meets Whack-a-mole
At the bottom is Ray Dalio's link to his analogy to the 1982 SPIKE in yields, and how he labels it an inverse of the current market action. There is a gap where the 30 year was abolished or suspended, whatever the term should be for that period between about 2002 and 2006. Just for … Continue reading Chart of 30 year US Treasury Bond yields
The pertinent text is in the graphics. The two things which interest me the most, one is the curve of the "new" money supply. It turned higher a bit late and that set up a dynamic in which the current rise is programmed in a much lower level, so that if the curve were consistent … Continue reading Is a “Top” in on the S&P??
https://swpcayman.com/media/commentary/the-missing-piece-to-the-puzzle Who Are the Players?The precious metals investment market (non-industrial users) is comprised of three major players; the central banks, the ETFs and the retail investors; people like you and I who literally buy physical gold and silver bars and coins.The World Gold Council reported that the central banks purchased 374 tonnes of gold in … Continue reading Those who make the rules, have the gold…
