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More on the Rolling Blackout Correction, or Crash Alert Setups

The money dumped at the close last night and after a brief rally this AM this money is leaking out of the market. Thank goodness MFI is really driving this market, we were overbought twice after the open, bam bam! as Emirl likes to say. Jeffery Snider at Alhambra has a long running feud with … Continue reading More on the Rolling Blackout Correction, or Crash Alert Setups

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Information in the information age is nothing, it’s the speed of information that matters….

The Fed never disappoints. Yesterday was an example. On the one minute chart the money came in at the open simultaneously. What the Fed does is drop the other shoe the next day. This is fundamentally a dishonest way to present policy changes, albeit however small. The Fed maintains credibility by presenting policy decisions BEFORE … Continue reading Information in the information age is nothing, it’s the speed of information that matters….

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Some Catharsis Is At Hand

Bloomberg) -- Market participants spurned cash this week in the biggest exit in more than a year and piled into equities on bets that the Federal Reserve will remain investor-friendly, according to Bank of America Corp. Money-market funds saw an outflow of about $62 billion in the week through Wednesday, the most since July 2020, … Continue reading Some Catharsis Is At Hand

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The End is Near: (b)Rash Prediction (updated 9/14)

The pullbacks are pretty orderly. Call this analysis the technical analysis of highly ordered monetary driven markets, not the charting of free markets with a static supply of new cash, other than what the companies create by actually lifting the economy. Of the four (4) Dojis, two present the chance of further selling with a … Continue reading The End is Near: (b)Rash Prediction (updated 9/14)

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The hard and fast break Pt II

The signal Thursday isn't really a hanging man, it's a doji, and in this monetary fueled market dojis, which usually imply a slowdown, don't mean much. Let's pretend that doji is a hanging man because it looks sort of lonely out there. Looking around for similar situations is a prudent course, this is a highly … Continue reading The hard and fast break Pt II

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September begins (revised and updated)

They chipped away at some minor support today and at the end of the day they were down .15% (not much really) and in the after hours, 15 minutes of option trading, they took it up .16%. Very nice really... Here's quick list of giveaways and takeaways for tomorrow. 1) Money flows are strong and … Continue reading September begins (revised and updated)

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Revised and Updated: Daily Grind Higher May Pause

We may be there now 8/31 9:55, need to see if that bottom holds at 451. This is very interesting chart with lots of signals Cramer just posted his charts for SPY, and he likes 455 and 460 and the 50dma for support, which is about 438. At this stage the 50 day moving average … Continue reading Revised and Updated: Daily Grind Higher May Pause

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Repost : Macro and Cheese

26 Aug, 23:33 Global: 7 reasons why Covid-19 could lead to an inflationary regime shift Market Phenomenology Article by Andreas Steno Larsen We have allowed ourselves to take a step back and look at why the Covid-19 crisis has changed the outcome space for global inflation. Inflationary risks are now larger than dis inflationary risks for … Continue reading Repost : Macro and Cheese

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WARNING the MONEY FLOWS are not currently a reliable indicator

I guess money is renewable energy. We can always make more. It's not as though we are using up precious stuff, trees for paper, or electricity for computer keyboards. Human beings sucked just a ton of carbon out the earth which took trillions of years to create - in just a few centuries. We could … Continue reading WARNING the MONEY FLOWS are not currently a reliable indicator

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Before you can Crash Down, you need to Crash UP!

APOCALYPSE WARNING!! This ship is headed for the rocks, but before that happens it will sprout wings and fly. Wherever we cast aspersions, begin with the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, who has earned 7 million dollars in speaking fees, her salary is a 1/4 million A YEAR. What do you think she told these investment … Continue reading Before you can Crash Down, you need to Crash UP!

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Lazy frenzied summer seasonal buying in the US stock market

Old stock market axiom: "Sell in May and go away??" What and miss this show? My interest here is on the long side, those money flows are pristine. The Fed gave out some wobbly advice, inflation might last a little longer than we thought. Watching the slow motion action here you can see just how … Continue reading Lazy frenzied summer seasonal buying in the US stock market

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Flat Lining (or putting the bid under a fiat based market)

The market appears to be consolidating with the likely outcome being toward a break higher. The money flows are good (or the cash). The selloff yesterday looks like a springboard to new highs. Nothing is going to break this market, other than a rogue asteroid. On the list of crazy things that can kill you. … Continue reading Flat Lining (or putting the bid under a fiat based market)

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Gaps Fill, Fillings fall out…(update 5/18)

This is what happened previously. I predicted in simplified textbook fashion how the top might play out, and the market in it's own way fashioned a similar version. 412 looked at though it was solid, especially after the market made new highs. The comment on the many tests of 412 drawing prices through turned to … Continue reading Gaps Fill, Fillings fall out…(update 5/18)

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Yellen pulls rug (on whom?) and the Bull market finds itself looking up at resistance: Update May 6th

Jay Powell is on a short leash. He has another Fed chief over him, and she is not reluctant to wear both hats. She dropped a comment about rising interest rates which this hyper jumpy market took to heart, then she walked them back. Now the market is staring up at the ceiling and the … Continue reading Yellen pulls rug (on whom?) and the Bull market finds itself looking up at resistance: Update May 6th

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Money, Money and more Fred Graphs [the Fed PUT is over]

The upper chart is the rise in the size of the money supply. Notice the dramatic improvement. Since the chart of GDP does not match that of the money supply, we have to assume that this rise is based on the additional money that the Fed has been adding to the economy, or new money, … Continue reading Money, Money and more Fred Graphs [the Fed PUT is over]

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The Great Cash Dump and the Silver Dump Truck

Thursday the market was down a percent on news of a capital gains tax, but it quickly regained all that the next day. Glass half full, this bull market has a lot of power left, glass half empty, traders are sitting on the edge, and a very small event could push them over. The current … Continue reading The Great Cash Dump and the Silver Dump Truck

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Gaps fill, the Dollar pulls back, Gold readies, Silver is fractious at the gate. Hi Yo Silver? (annotated 4/21)

Two days forward (new highs) and one step back to square one, (recent new highs). The thin green line is a recent high and not much value there, The light blue line is the GAP, and that should fill. There is a confluence with the diagonal trend line (red) which provides additional support. Below that … Continue reading Gaps fill, the Dollar pulls back, Gold readies, Silver is fractious at the gate. Hi Yo Silver? (annotated 4/21)

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Expanding Triangles: A study in bull and bear markets, March 25th

This was the prologue to yesterdays upmove. Next we see what really happened. The expanding triangle (March 25th) broke the lower bound but managed to break higher anyway. Interesting the money flows were poor on the breakout, except for MFI. By April 27th the outcome on two expanding triangles was slightly different. The first (bearish) … Continue reading Expanding Triangles: A study in bull and bear markets, March 25th

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Bad news Friday (August 9th, 2020)

Palladium is a precious industrial metal used in automobile catalytic converters. The market for these things applies equally to used cars as well as new. While OEM cats are very good, after market cats are good for maybe a few years. They come in all prices ranges. Some analysts believe these side markets, Palladium and … Continue reading Bad news Friday (August 9th, 2020)

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Return of Jumping the Shark !!!

September 18th, 2019..... The line in the water was crossed, again and again. Since technical lines of support resistance tend to be hard lines, this sort of fuzzy logic must seem confusing to newcomers to the field of technical analysis. A full explanation to follow A couple things about monetary fueled markets. They don't follow … Continue reading Return of Jumping the Shark !!!