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Two Red Hearts: Another Failed Rally Setup?? 6/27

The last failed rally set up, Red Heart One, occurred around the first of the month. Like 2018 when the MFI tracks above the market is positive, and when it tracks below the market loses value. The A/D has lower highs and lower lows, although it is flat to upwardly biased in the longer term. … Continue reading Two Red Hearts: Another Failed Rally Setup?? 6/27

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Jerome a highly paid speaker at these events

Not sure the correct way to spin this, but whenever Jerome speaks, the market goes up. Okay. This looks like the second day of testimony to run concurrently with the January 6th hearings, which are having their effect. I love corporate credit in here, discount to fair value in the ETFs. That doesn't mean corporate … Continue reading Jerome a highly paid speaker at these events

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Wednesday June 9 : Inside the Turn : Dog Chasing Car syndrome

 "There must be some way out of here"Said the joker to the thief"There's too much confusionI can't get no relief" Is it possible to put two up days together. Maybe. At the close Tuesday the money flows dropped and that led to a lower futures opening. That was immediately bought up to the old high … Continue reading Wednesday June 9 : Inside the Turn : Dog Chasing Car syndrome

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JOBs REPort hAMMERs the mARKket, June 3nth (closing bell)

One of the yahoo interviews [finally] said, the election is looming large, because the Dems need to do something about inflation before November. My guess is they may blast Putin to smithereens to get the economy off the tracks. But first... Those little twin shadows near the open look like something and so far they … Continue reading JOBs REPort hAMMERs the mARKket, June 3nth (closing bell)

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Bear Correction to a Bull Market? June ONE and closing bell….

In tandem prices pulled back sharply today, which conjurs up the imagery of the "Dog Chasing a Car.." signal. The dog never catches the car (usually) and the money restores the market function. The drop on the left looks a great deal like the drop on the right. From there prices on Tuesday cut through … Continue reading Bear Correction to a Bull Market? June ONE and closing bell….

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Money Rushes Into the Vortex, May 25 and Closing Bell

No explanation needed. Old trend lines die off, and new ones are formed. "They" are putting (some) money into this and there is a confluence of lines, some trend lines, some old support / resistance lines, which often have more catlike lives than you imagined. This isn't a big MONEY push, just a probe really. … Continue reading Money Rushes Into the Vortex, May 25 and Closing Bell

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Exhaustion instead of Capitulation? May 23rd

The down trending blue dot trend line proved to a worthy tool for the short term bears. Resistance held every time save once. After that you could pretty much discard any signals but then it provided resistance three more times. Then a new flag or pennant formed. That one appears to be a continuation and … Continue reading Exhaustion instead of Capitulation? May 23rd

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Trend line switch (and closing arguments)

This may not amount to much. The blue dot descending trendline (dog chasing the car) lost relevance (dog caught the car?) and this flag pattern setup which is presently in wave five, appears to be a bit short of the top line, (bearish) should price break out the bottom, a classic continuation. Money flows took … Continue reading Trend line switch (and closing arguments)

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Epic Failures: Scroll down to see eye popping predictions. May 16, 2022

Year to date in a two minute tour of the hourly chart. There is the long descending gold trend line from New Years to the middle of March. The small gold arrows show where price was rejected. In two instances the (green arrows) price actually broke through only to fall back. Those are moments when … Continue reading Epic Failures: Scroll down to see eye popping predictions. May 16, 2022

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May 9th, a bottom but not a protean base, and May 10 a rally: NYFANG:SPY ratios updated and closing bell….

Prices were down 2% in stairstep fashion when they got near 400 the sellers were exhausted, and only mile one of a bear market marathon. The money seemed to anticipate the move. Can it hold? There's a short term resistance line at 412 1/2. Nibbling SPY call spreads here. This looks like it was planned … Continue reading May 9th, a bottom but not a protean base, and May 10 a rally: NYFANG:SPY ratios updated and closing bell….

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Billions in Wrong-Way ETF Bets Placed Just Before Thursday Rout (Bloomberg)

No kidding some traders got caught on the wrong side. By analogy, the turn in September has the same trend reversal, two steps up, one tiny step back, followed by a huge washout day. Pay close attention that wasn't the end of the selling. The buying leveled off and just guessing if you held the … Continue reading Billions in Wrong-Way ETF Bets Placed Just Before Thursday Rout (Bloomberg)

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NO U TURN ALLOWED : update May 7th

Slowing outflows from exchange-traded funds and repositioning in futures contracts indicate that “we are near peak investor bearishness across equity markets, though there are not yet any bullish reversals,” Citi strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote in a note to clients. “Going forward, there may increasingly be a bias towards unwinding the large short positions.”Citigroup … Continue reading NO U TURN ALLOWED : update May 7th

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Crypto Will Crash the Party

Money flows aren't bad, they still haven't hiked interest rates, or reduce their balance sheet meaningfully. Then someone today seems quite sure that the central banks global drain on liquidity is driving this. Yeah maybe... Seems as though it might be retail, or the futures market. Those pesky outsiders. Then it could be BITCOIN... Yes … Continue reading Crypto Will Crash the Party

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Can Stocks Melt Up??

After listening to David Hunter, at Wealthion, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7_zUYCDjoo calling for the S&P melt-up to 6000, (within six months) The melt-up is now!! I am inclined to recall my prediction of a redux of the late 90's stock market rally; Giant Stock Rally, and Inside the Turn... I dubbed my melt-up scenario White Monday, in reference … Continue reading Can Stocks Melt Up??

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“The future, Mr. Gittes….”

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/jeremy-grantham-ray-dalio-other-104500411.html That was the moment in the movie Chinatown when the detective confronts his adversary, and gets an answer he isn't ready to comprehend... The rich and the powerful play by a different set of rules, which is how Jake Gittes might have summarized his meeting with Noah Cross, in order to reveal his own … Continue reading “The future, Mr. Gittes….”

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Commodity : Updated

"I have just one word for you, plastics..." That's a throwaway line in the Graduate, film circa the 1960's. It was probably good advice, a career in plastics manufacturing and development would have been very rewarding, just not very glamorous. "Plastics are made from natural materials such as cellulose, coal, natural gas, salt and crude oil through … Continue reading Commodity : Updated

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Hedging America

EFA Fund Summary: The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure large- and … Continue reading Hedging America

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The EZ-PZ Guide to your Financial Future…

The largest obstacle to our collective financial well being will come this fall. That is when Republicans, despite not really practicing sound political methods, may retake both houses of Congress, That would result in a claw back of the spending bills, and leave the Treasury/Fed sitting on a pile of money. The Fed has nearly … Continue reading The EZ-PZ Guide to your Financial Future…

For Entertainment Purposes Only

This was shared by Paul Krugman the Nobel winning economist who drew the short straw in 2006, being in consideration for the job of Federal Reserve Chairman. Ben Bernanke took over, just in time for the great financial crisis. Bernanke then orchestrated a decade long massive government bond buying program, which endeared him to nobody … Continue reading For Entertainment Purposes Only