Screams From the Balcony

This is going to be easy, as I get ready to head out to the track, where the horses always run, and you have a fighting chance. The players are screaming RECESSION as though that were the end of it. Yes the benchmark yield curve is nearly zero, off its previous inversion. Notice the recession …

Stink Bids June 30

The bad stars were all aligned today. Precious metals which had been treading water lost flotation. And that was while Treasury Yields were diving. Buying TIPS because yields will fall faster than inflation is not a good reason, but perhaps the only reason. The dollar gave ground so what gives? The PMs have been uber …

Failed Rally

Yesterday's action was a major headfake. The futures opened higher, the market had momentum, and the money opened with them. I thought it might be a 2% day, and a couple of (respected) bearish analysts were calling for 5 - 7 % more, which would take us to Red Heart Two. (Notably missing from the …

Two Red Hearts: Another Failed Rally Setup?? 6/27

The last failed rally set up, Red Heart One, occurred around the first of the month. Like 2018 when the MFI tracks above the market is positive, and when it tracks below the market loses value. The A/D has lower highs and lower lows, although it is flat to upwardly biased in the longer term. …

GA(s)PPING FOR AIR

In the process of closing the down gaps from last week the bulls opened their own gap, which if the rally has legs will close itself within a day or so. Gaps deferred tend to create long term obligations, (just repeating what I see in this market since October) Jeff Snider has his own money …

Jerome a highly paid speaker at these events

Not sure the correct way to spin this, but whenever Jerome speaks, the market goes up. Okay. This looks like the second day of testimony to run concurrently with the January 6th hearings, which are having their effect. I love corporate credit in here, discount to fair value in the ETFs. That doesn't mean corporate …

Money Flows Waning

Money flows are not supportive here, though only marginally so. The MFI is below the benchmark, in the similar 2018 selloff when MFI money flow did trend above or below the line (approximate in that series) that tended to support the bullish or bearish part of the cycle. The Bullish part of the cycle here …

After the Fed One Day Rally

They really love to hear Jerome speak. He is their sky pilot. Today back to the war. The annnotations sum it up. Late in any trendline the issue of support and resistance has been fought and resolved and the price follows the trend (until it doesn't) How do you know? The MFI might decide to …

Shot Down Out of a Cannon

First things first, there are two gaps and gaps close. They don't always close right away, remember the bullish October gaps, it took them months to close, however these gaps could close much sooner. A second issue is the nature of the selling which is futures driven, if you only count the loss during the …

Gold at a turn?

You might expect the rally in GOLD to continue through the upper trend line and with increasing volume, that would constitute a bullish breakout. There's about $165 in potential from 1900 = $2065 which takes us to the recent highs. The important thing to consider is what the environment will look like at those highs, …

Waiting for Bear Market Confirm

Idle curiosity to see which of teh sharply descending trend lines offer any support. Have no preset support lines in place below this, just the usual cut and paste, or Fibonacci, I don't expect those to offer much guidance. The extra market catalyst was the release of the Jan 6 committee report, or the first …

6/9

Now if 6 turned out to be 9,I don't mind, I don't mind,Alright, if all the hippies cut off all their hair,I don't care, I don't care.Dig, 'cos I got my own world to live throughAnd I ain't gonna copy you. The money dropped at the close last PM, and the futures followed, then the …

Wednesday June 9 : Inside the Turn : Dog Chasing Car syndrome

 "There must be some way out of here"Said the joker to the thief"There's too much confusionI can't get no relief" Is it possible to put two up days together. Maybe. At the close Tuesday the money flows dropped and that led to a lower futures opening. That was immediately bought up to the old high …

Tuesday Spin

While I really want to feel good about the price action, and take the giant leap to the Magenta Heart on the daily chart, this stuff is just not doing it for me. While price traces out a consolidation OBV has been weaker. A/D is it's usual self, but I see something there that bothers …

It’s ALIVE I tell you

And so it all begins looking a lot more familiar. The Fed may tighten interest rate policy, but the front loaded stimulus will be felt for years to come regardless. The real question for the markets after a correction is how to stabilize the money flows. The Fed, the Garden Hose and the Swimming Pool... …

JOBs REPort hAMMERs the mARKket, June 3nth (closing bell)

One of the yahoo interviews [finally] said, the election is looming large, because the Dems need to do something about inflation before November. My guess is they may blast Putin to smithereens to get the economy off the tracks. But first... Those little twin shadows near the open look like something and so far they …

Bear Market Sally Forth

My own wordplay, a bear market, to sally: a sudden charge out of a besieged place against the enemy; a sortie with certain retail overtones. Investor bearish sentiment was overdone. The rally looks good technically, and that worries me. I want to see money flows driving this minivan of a rally. Sure they're not bad. …

Bear Correction to a Bull Market? June ONE and closing bell….

In tandem prices pulled back sharply today, which conjurs up the imagery of the "Dog Chasing a Car.." signal. The dog never catches the car (usually) and the money restores the market function. The drop on the left looks a great deal like the drop on the right. From there prices on Tuesday cut through …

Lumber Long View

There are several sets of lines on the bar chart, the most salient is the long support line since 2009 which should hold prices at the 350 level. The thinking goes that periodically prices must test these lines, and that Red/Green triangle is an interesting possibility. At first glance it appears to be a BULLISH …

Pause or PAWS! May 31st and closing bell

After 5% up in a couple days the market is just cooling it's jets. The Bulls appear to be waiting to see what the Bears have got. (Sellers want higher prices - if they can't get them they will take what they can get - if the Bears cannot produce results in the Bullish vacuum, …

Gameplan

The charts are all "off" the charts. The money flows are restored, somewhat. Short and intermediate money flows are still depressed, but the always money has never given credence to the abrogation of the Fed PUT. Good news and bad news. They rotated out of Tech and into less "Techy" things. The important consideration in …

FAANG-A-DANG A DING DONG

In order of appearance: Facebook is a BEAR TRIANGLE, projecting a drop to 101, or roughly about 80 points below this. or 40%. Google has a BEARISH objective of 1911, which is 200 points lower or 10%. AMZN has met it's BEARISH objective and would need to move to 2210 or about 80 points higher …

Money Rushes Into the Vortex, May 25 and Closing Bell

No explanation needed. Old trend lines die off, and new ones are formed. "They" are putting (some) money into this and there is a confluence of lines, some trend lines, some old support / resistance lines, which often have more catlike lives than you imagined. This isn't a big MONEY push, just a probe really. …

Exhaustion instead of Capitulation? May 23rd

The down trending blue dot trend line proved to a worthy tool for the short term bears. Resistance held every time save once. After that you could pretty much discard any signals but then it provided resistance three more times. Then a new flag or pennant formed. That one appears to be a continuation and …

Trend line switch (and closing arguments)

This may not amount to much. The blue dot descending trendline (dog chasing the car) lost relevance (dog caught the car?) and this flag pattern setup which is presently in wave five, appears to be a bit short of the top line, (bearish) should price break out the bottom, a classic continuation. Money flows took …

2018 Twins?

2018, the year of living dangerously featured a Fed rate hike plan which roiled the markets. Eventually in 2019, Fed backed off the plan (after pressure from DJT) and the market recovered nicely, albeit only to meet Covid lurking around the corner. A quick list of similar points. a) Strong overbought on MFI. Drop down …

Rally Set: Look out Below (UPDATED)

The strong case for something (often implies an equal and opposite reaction if the move fails) Prices should bounce off that white line at 398. If they don't then things get ugly (probably) although in a volatile market such moves are often head fakes. That would suppose a lot of money is waiting to come …

Epic Failures: Scroll down to see eye popping predictions. May 16, 2022

Year to date in a two minute tour of the hourly chart. There is the long descending gold trend line from New Years to the middle of March. The small gold arrows show where price was rejected. In two instances the (green arrows) price actually broke through only to fall back. Those are moments when …

Last Call for the Melt-Up Express

self tapping screw The economy is a self tightening screw. The Fed doesn't need to do much work here, Pt 1) and David Hunter who is pushing his melt-up scenario, is continuing to press on, with some pretty good logic anyway. The economy is slowing and the Fed will not follow through on the dreaded …

Friday the 13th.

Obviously we want the technical analysis to work, that gives us some measure of confidence. TA is chart by analogy, and when the Feds monetary machine is pumping money those comparisons are next to worthless. In a low volume market such as this one there is a bit more support for our methods. Here's the …

SpyVsSpy(G) May 12

SPYG is the index that approximates the FAANG. The drop in the ratio reflects outperformance in the TECH sector. The question now, what is the median ratio, and is the market going to stop selling their family jewels when the revaluation is complete? Even if the ratio returns to say, the 8.0 mark, will that …

A Silver Bear Trap?

The chart of Silver looks a lot better than Gold. Here's a comparison between the VIX which in a study I compared the possibility of VIX and OIL completing bear trap signals. VIX did, OIL has extended. Now Silver is very likely to break it's triple bottom, 19.55 and needs 19.50. Is Silver going to …

May 9th, a bottom but not a protean base, and May 10 a rally: NYFANG:SPY ratios updated and closing bell….

Prices were down 2% in stairstep fashion when they got near 400 the sellers were exhausted, and only mile one of a bear market marathon. The money seemed to anticipate the move. Can it hold? There's a short term resistance line at 412 1/2. Nibbling SPY call spreads here. This looks like it was planned …

Billions in Wrong-Way ETF Bets Placed Just Before Thursday Rout (Bloomberg)

No kidding some traders got caught on the wrong side. By analogy, the turn in September has the same trend reversal, two steps up, one tiny step back, followed by a huge washout day. Pay close attention that wasn't the end of the selling. The buying leveled off and just guessing if you held the …

Divergences Building

Relax, there is no way any rational investor, or speculator, should be in this market day or swing trading. The forces are aligned, and we know who they are, there is the LONGEST MONEY, the A/D which after the ramp up on Fedspeak yesterday, pulled back not one bit. The intermediate term, OBV, this is …

NO U TURN ALLOWED : update May 7th

Slowing outflows from exchange-traded funds and repositioning in futures contracts indicate that “we are near peak investor bearishness across equity markets, though there are not yet any bullish reversals,” Citi strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote in a note to clients. “Going forward, there may increasingly be a bias towards unwinding the large short positions.”Citigroup …

Crypto Will Crash the Party

Money flows aren't bad, they still haven't hiked interest rates, or reduce their balance sheet meaningfully. Then someone today seems quite sure that the central banks global drain on liquidity is driving this. Yeah maybe... Seems as though it might be retail, or the futures market. Those pesky outsiders. Then it could be BITCOIN... Yes …

FAANG Stock Breakdown

Damage to the stocks in this group is uneven. Are some of them bottom fishing plays, others outright sells?? Here are the charts complete with pithy comments. Facebook looks to have taken the worst of it. The good news here is that the 50dma is still above that broken trend line. There is also a …

Can Stocks Melt Up??

After listening to David Hunter, at Wealthion, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7_zUYCDjoo calling for the S&P melt-up to 6000, (within six months) The melt-up is now!! I am inclined to recall my prediction of a redux of the late 90's stock market rally; Giant Stock Rally, and Inside the Turn... I dubbed my melt-up scenario White Monday, in reference …

A look at the VOL

The UVXY is UP Volatility and SVXY is DOWN. There is also Point and Figure. Presently the high volatility trade is catching all the action, and these are nervous hedgers, gamblers and the lot. At 11 price is at the lower trendline in a large flag formation. A break of that line @11.81 would suggest …

Another Leg Lower

The term for Leg meaning to step, so another step lower.... This is all straightforward enough. Money flows are good, just not right. OBV has been stuck since December and a break of that red trend line would probably be cause for a good rally. A/D or the always money, is surging and carrying this …

“The future, Mr. Gittes….”

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/jeremy-grantham-ray-dalio-other-104500411.html That was the moment in the movie Chinatown when the detective confronts his adversary, and gets an answer he isn't ready to comprehend... The rich and the powerful play by a different set of rules, which is how Jake Gittes might have summarized his meeting with Noah Cross, in order to reveal his own …

GDX’n : updated May 7th

Of late the miners (GDX) have been moving up against the underlying, Gold is stalled about 1950. The P&F chart of Gold shows a high pole warning pullback, which throws cold water on the $5000 gold blowoff. Here is GDX on P&F with some comparisons, Post Covid debacle ALL stocks moved higher, (see Pumping Jerome). …

As the World Turns

Nothing much has changed here, which is our concern. The OBV looked ready to pullback again, but it is not doing that. The ALWAYS money is steaming ahead and meanwhile the MFI is dropping to support without any damage to the price. The turning point is the VIX which has ripped higher, then today the …

Commodity : Updated

"I have just one word for you, plastics..." That's a throwaway line in the Graduate, film circa the 1960's. It was probably good advice, a career in plastics manufacturing and development would have been very rewarding, just not very glamorous. "Plastics are made from natural materials such as cellulose, coal, natural gas, salt and crude oil through …

Hedging America

EFA Fund Summary: The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure large- and …

The EZ-PZ Guide to your Financial Future…

The largest obstacle to our collective financial well being will come this fall. That is when Republicans, despite not really practicing sound political methods, may retake both houses of Congress, That would result in a claw back of the spending bills, and leave the Treasury/Fed sitting on a pile of money. The Fed has nearly …

Pumping Jerome

The A/D, or Always Money, or Fed money, and Warren Buffett "walking around" money, is surging powerfully here. Too bad it is the only money flow outperforming in this reflexive rally. MFI is setting up a cycle similar to 2018, a rough year for all but the nimble. The whales are buying the dip and …

Precious Metals: All In, or All Aboard??

The Gold ETF is a more volatile version of the underlying. Some doubt it's efficacy. Should you hold it long term you need to accept the rate of decay is substantial. There is a day out there somewhere where it gets readjusted to match the price of gold, and the owners have fewer shares but …

Reflexive Rally

Someone said that they thought the Feds (sly) comments were responsible for the market rally, but more than likely the Russians are bogging down, without WW3. In point of fact the Fed has provided several punch bowls so if it takes one back who will notice? The general consensus being they are refilling the contents. …

For Entertainment Purposes Only

This was shared by Paul Krugman the Nobel winning economist who drew the short straw in 2006, being in consideration for the job of Federal Reserve Chairman. Ben Bernanke took over, just in time for the great financial crisis. Bernanke then orchestrated a decade long massive government bond buying program, which endeared him to nobody …