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March 30 S&P setups into No Man’s Land: Fed’s premature Monetary Ejaculation

The near 90 degree bear market rally angles, which are usually set early in the day, are not an indication of a likely sustainable rally. Volatility levels are not dropping. Even if the Fed does restore the money flows, and the market moves incrementally higher do investors want to go on vacation and come back … Continue reading March 30 S&P setups into No Man’s Land: Fed’s premature Monetary Ejaculation

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Side Bar on Trend Lines: No Man’s Land : update 3/25

Here's the 3/25 update, since I posted this chart price action broke the white trend line which is actually the better of the two uptrends. The Down trend line is now calling prices lower, and when they get there, if they get there we will see where this thing is going. This may have been … Continue reading Side Bar on Trend Lines: No Man’s Land : update 3/25

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The Glass Bottom Boat

In this perfect addition to foreplay, one partner lies beneath a glass coffee table while the other squats above it and unloads. Like viewing the colorful sea life from the relative safety and serenity of a glass-bottom boat, this simple maneuver is not only arousing but biologically tantalizing. The Fed attempted to unload a large sum today, most of … Continue reading The Glass Bottom Boat

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Is Gold the Canary in the deep hole where markets go to die?

During GFC Gold outperformed the S&P, and new money flows were strong even as the system threatened to stop (allegedly). Lets separate this selloff during that crisis into two distinct phases, before October 2008 and after. The bottom was put in six months later in March of 2009. Phase two lost 45% while phase one … Continue reading Is Gold the Canary in the deep hole where markets go to die?

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Bear Market Rally continues or a trading range, or more downside?

The short duration in the A/D money line conceals the damage. Money was bleeding out of this market at a record clip. The point of this is not, will the money return to those levels but can they sustain that flow. Right now they are running hot, at 100B or more a day. Roll that … Continue reading Bear Market Rally continues or a trading range, or more downside?

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Bear Market Counter Attack; Fed trash cans empty, Bears take it inside.. Update: THIS IS NOT A SELLOFF I REPEAT…. Update: Still room to rally here, but time running out.

So far the rally hasn't kicked in, even with a higher open. Liquidity is still in the system waiting to go to work. With a rally scenario in place the market will close higher to form a hanging man on the daily chart. That should set up a rally tomorrow, with 328 as the optimistic … Continue reading Bear Market Counter Attack; Fed trash cans empty, Bears take it inside.. Update: THIS IS NOT A SELLOFF I REPEAT…. Update: Still room to rally here, but time running out.

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Waist Deep in the Big Money

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24VOo7-ctKU With the current market weakness (Feb21) the resulting reallocation of money into bond funds has achieved, at least temporarily, the same effects as the Fed buying those bonds. it does not however help the monetization problem (Fed takes short term paper from Treasury department to monetize spending, now must roll out to longer duration … Continue reading Waist Deep in the Big Money

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The Set-UP, January 8th (new bear market warning!!) Jan. 9th followup

for strictly educational purposes okay? 324 may be the top for a while. When the SPY didn't get overbought on a relief rally it set off all sorts of sirens. Yesterdays bland BULLISH! opening may be a foreshadowing. Today seems to have similar characteristics. Trend lines when they get over extended often act like magnets … Continue reading The Set-UP, January 8th (new bear market warning!!) Jan. 9th followup

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Should I Stay or Should I Go…

Courtesy of the Clash.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN1WwnEDWAM I have offhand plans to depart USofA. A lot, maybe all of it depends not on Donald Trump but the people who vote for him. How far are they going to take this? Then the market crash seems imminent, and it always does and part of me agrees with that … Continue reading Should I Stay or Should I Go…

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Yield Curve non-reinversion of 94 Simplified

From the analysts seat the thing to watch is ROC. Rate of Change is very simple, and does not rely on any interpretation of price action volume or such. It seems clear the 98 rate cut decisions threw accelerated the YC which inverted. That level, about 600 is very similar to what the ROC in … Continue reading Yield Curve non-reinversion of 94 Simplified

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Through the VIX Looking Glass updated 10/07 with concurrent call from Under the Shark Volcano..

Update 10/08: A mirror chart assumes the left side can be reversed on the right side. There is very little standard charting work to suggest this is necessarily valid, though I have seen chartists do this, and that is where I got the idea. The rationale behind applying this, and actually seeing it work, the … Continue reading Through the VIX Looking Glass updated 10/07 with concurrent call from Under the Shark Volcano..

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Yield Curve History (Update 11/06) incl PREQUEL to “Yield Curve Intolerant”

We could already have established a benchmark on the YC at around that historic .2 level. The hidden signal here is the ROC, or Rate of Change. Circa 94 the ROC was a modest 200. In the current situation it has already hit 600 which is still much lower than the alarm bell readings in … Continue reading Yield Curve History (Update 11/06) incl PREQUEL to “Yield Curve Intolerant”