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On the Bubble

Okay we're on the flight path to a landing, and in pilots' terms we are on the bubble, that is on flight path with the correct wing, nose, and flap alignments. Bob Prechter said once that the stock market is the economy, but like most of his axioms, that hasn't held up well. That's worth … Continue reading On the Bubble

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Forget it Jake, It’s Chinatown

Interesting that this line draws so much analysis. This process of interpretation of the obvious, the "What do you mean?" retort which is too often used when someone is stating a concrete or obvious fact. We don't imagine Jake's next line would be, "What do you mean?". "Chinatown?"... The phrase is a metaphorical statement, there … Continue reading Forget it Jake, It’s Chinatown

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QE for Duckies

The Federal Reserve refers to QE as a monetary experiment. Halcyon crys, that the Great Depression could have been avoided, through expanded use of various Fed policies really misses point. Such policies didn't exist. Rather than relying on direct spending, government promotes lending through the financial industry, to grow the economy, which in turn allows … Continue reading QE for Duckies

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Slaughter of the Contrarian Bulls

The October Surprise? came on money flows lifting in tandem. The Bullish contrarians got some bad news on inflation, (Powell) said it was transitory, and they doubled down. This programmed counter response might have a name, in simple terms when the average investor reading the headlines sees something that casts a doubt on the markets … Continue reading Slaughter of the Contrarian Bulls

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October in April

Bit and pieces from October of 2021 Trump says Republicans won't vote in 2022, 2024 without investigation Former President Donald Trump released a statement Wednesday saying that "Republicans will not be voting in [2022] or [2024]" unless the "thoroughly and conclusively documented" presidential "election fraud of 2020" is investigated. He said abstaining from voting was "the single … Continue reading October in April

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Market Psyops

Psychological Operations Psychological Operations (PSYOP) Soldiers benefit the Army's missions by using unconventional techniques. The Mission is market stability and stability means NOT lower prices, which implies, higher prices. The Fed PUT is as much a PSYOPs as a monetary policy. Analyst Jeff Snider says, the Fed is bluffing, [first foremost and always]. There is something … Continue reading Market Psyops

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Sturm and Draino : 3/23 UPDATE and Preview of the Year Ahead…

Despite the ugly last half hour, this wasn't much of a move. The Money Flows remain pretty much where they were. Price hit both sides of the ten point range today. While it seems like this was a battle of two groups, bulls and bears, optimists and pessimists, it just doesn't look that way on … Continue reading Sturm and Draino : 3/23 UPDATE and Preview of the Year Ahead…

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Morgan Stanley Strategist Says Bank Stress Signals Bear Market End

Market Propaganda Propaganda is the process by which media and important voices repeat what you want to hear, using various methods of rhetoric, or in this case perhaps, dog whistling past the graveyard. The context of the story above is that Mike Wilson sees the banking crisis as a means to "capitulation" in this bear … Continue reading Morgan Stanley Strategist Says Bank Stress Signals Bear Market End

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Remember when the market went up every time Jay Powell spoke?

Now the market action around the almost daily Fed briefings is anti-salubrious. (Is this a war?) One hedge fund manager went so far as to suggest that Powell just needs to shut up. [The market always goes down when he speaks.] So today they are trying to clawback some of the losses. The big picture … Continue reading Remember when the market went up every time Jay Powell spoke?

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Dynamic Charting and Projections

Cut and Paste, or "signal" charting was pushed aside during the great Monetary expansion. Monetary markets tend to run in patterns. With more programmed trading it shouldn't be that hard to decipher the patterns (there are many different programs, alas...) In the current environment psychology has almost nothing to do with the pattern. After the … Continue reading Dynamic Charting and Projections

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Everything is great but something is rotten….

Maybe if Bill had made jokes about drugging young starlets, his humor would have been more endearing. He might have become the Donald Trump of the BLM movement. As it is he remains the tagline on Dave Chappelle's "Attention Huckstables"...... So things are really rotten, down underneath, like they always were. And stocks try to … Continue reading Everything is great but something is rotten….

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Curse of the Fed, the Money’s Curse

The Southern Engineering Company is trying to drain the local swamp for the public good. However, the efforts are being hampered by the superstitions of the workers, who believe the area to be haunted by the mummy and his bride. wikipedia It all seems familiar, "draining the swamp", or in this instance bringing down the … Continue reading Curse of the Fed, the Money’s Curse

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22′ Flipped on it’s head

Did some work previously on the 94' charts, the 94'-95' turn was very similar to the conditions we have here. 94' was the year of the Bond Massacre, (Yields rising suddenly!) Vigilantes extracted some justice on the new monetization policies, and were ultimately unsuccessful. 94' was also the year of the Fed pivot and Greenspan … Continue reading 22′ Flipped on it’s head