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Where the money never stops…

In late 99' there was a burst of monetary stimulus, predicated on inoculating the markets against the effects of Y2K, which was a threat to the newly formed electronic banking system. Since then any excuse will do. The upshot all this money printing is the damping effect on economic growth, or money velocity. These three … Continue reading Where the money never stops…

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“Let’s do the Twist, like we did last summer….”

Following the 1998 rate cuts into a speculative stock market, and then facing the threat of Y2K, which is the computer variation of the Corona Virus. The result was a permanent flattening of the Yield Curve, which did not finally steepen until the stock market crashed, or perhaps because of it. The last instance of … Continue reading “Let’s do the Twist, like we did last summer….”

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The Church of What’s Happening Now

American pragmatism is globally unique. The conspiracy theory surrounding the Corona Virus is built by the Alt Right, and the Democrats used the crisis as a cover to defeat Donald Trump in 2020. How they knew the virus crisis would defeat him, not make him look the powerful leader they know he really is, how … Continue reading The Church of What’s Happening Now

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Through the VIX Looking Glass updated 10/07 with concurrent call from Under the Shark Volcano..

Update 10/08: A mirror chart assumes the left side can be reversed on the right side. There is very little standard charting work to suggest this is necessarily valid, though I have seen chartists do this, and that is where I got the idea. The rationale behind applying this, and actually seeing it work, the … Continue reading Through the VIX Looking Glass updated 10/07 with concurrent call from Under the Shark Volcano..

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Return of Jumping the Shark !!!

September 18th, 2019..... The line in the water was crossed, again and again. Since technical lines of support resistance tend to be hard lines, this sort of fuzzy logic must seem confusing to newcomers to the field of technical analysis. A full explanation to follow We keep returning to this level, we may as well … Continue reading Return of Jumping the Shark !!!

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Yield Curve History (Update 11/06) incl PREQUEL to “Yield Curve Intolerant”

We could already have established a benchmark on the YC at around that historic .2 level. The hidden signal here is the ROC, or Rate of Change. Circa 94 the ROC was a modest 200. In the current situation it has already hit 600 which is still much lower than the alarm bell readings in … Continue reading Yield Curve History (Update 11/06) incl PREQUEL to “Yield Curve Intolerant”

Economic Thrombosis I

Due to the economic hardships imposed by the Corona Virus the US Government needs to freeze the credit markets, and first of all the mortgage market. Their solution is forbearance to mortgage holders (borrowers), Banks no longer hold mortgages, they package them into MBS, Mortgage Backed Securities, which are then sold to the INVESTING PUBLIC. There a several economic … Continue reading Economic Thrombosis I