More on the Rolling Blackout Correction, or Crash Alert Setups

The money dumped at the close last night and after a brief rally this AM this money is leaking out of the market. Thank goodness MFI is really driving this market, we were overbought twice after the open, bam bam! as Emirl likes to say. Jeffery Snider at Alhambra has a long running feud with …

Information in the information age is nothing, it’s the speed of information that matters….

The Fed never disappoints. Yesterday was an example. On the one minute chart the money came in at the open simultaneously. What the Fed does is drop the other shoe the next day. This is fundamentally a dishonest way to present policy changes, albeit however small. The Fed maintains credibility by presenting policy decisions BEFORE …

Measuring the MFI point of reference

Of the three money flow indicators, only the MFI seems to be valid. A/D and OBV are both pretty solid here. So the market got a bit "oversold" in the parlance. Time to see what happens at other points in time when the market reaches this milestone. Late 2018, the longer term money flows were …

Dipping Nine Twenty

"You have to look at where the crowding is, and right now, there's so much negative sentiment with regard to the market. It's why we have been buying this dip this week and telling our clients that we think the market setup is perfect for a pretty big rally for the rest of September and …

Some Catharsis Is At Hand

Bloomberg) -- Market participants spurned cash this week in the biggest exit in more than a year and piled into equities on bets that the Federal Reserve will remain investor-friendly, according to Bank of America Corp. Money-market funds saw an outflow of about $62 billion in the week through Wednesday, the most since July 2020, …

Expiration Date(s)

Options expiration is today and the SPY options chain has a mountain of open interest on the calls, most of it out of the money (now). This is a change in sentiment from the gamma trade. In the gamma trade speculators buy calls out of the money then drive up the price of the underlying …

The End is Near: (b)Rash Prediction (updated 9/14)

The pullbacks are pretty orderly. Call this analysis the technical analysis of highly ordered monetary driven markets, not the charting of free markets with a static supply of new cash, other than what the companies create by actually lifting the economy. Of the four (4) Dojis, two present the chance of further selling with a …

Gaming the Drop Pt II

If I am a bull I don't like this move at all. The sellers let her rip there for maybe 5 whole minutes, and they did some damage. (Go BEARS!) Then the algos kicked in, the A/D and there is more money in the market NOW than there was before the 5 minute selloff. The …

Gaming the Drop

Woke up early and the futures were down barely, but they kept drifting lower before the open. Then it was time to buy a few calls maybe. The at the moneys for 451 were running about fifty cents, but once the selling ceased they jumped up a quarter, delta within a delta of one probably. …

The hard and fast break Pt II

The signal Thursday isn't really a hanging man, it's a doji, and in this monetary fueled market dojis, which usually imply a slowdown, don't mean much. Let's pretend that doji is a hanging man because it looks sort of lonely out there. Looking around for similar situations is a prudent course, this is a highly …

This could break hard and fast

The pullback from the highs gained a bit of momentum. Higher highs and higher lows, and positive money flows. That series of one day descending trend lines to is a warning that something isn't quite right, and perhaps today's pullback was just a bit too deep for a highly charged market like this one, The …

September begins (revised and updated)

They chipped away at some minor support today and at the end of the day they were down .15% (not much really) and in the after hours, 15 minutes of option trading, they took it up .16%. Very nice really... Here's quick list of giveaways and takeaways for tomorrow. 1) Money flows are strong and …

Revised and Updated: Daily Grind Higher May Pause

We may be there now 8/31 9:55, need to see if that bottom holds at 451. This is very interesting chart with lots of signals Cramer just posted his charts for SPY, and he likes 455 and 460 and the 50dma for support, which is about 438. At this stage the 50 day moving average …

Repost : Macro and Cheese

26 Aug, 23:33 Global: 7 reasons why Covid-19 could lead to an inflationary regime shift Market Phenomenology Article by Andreas Steno Larsen We have allowed ourselves to take a step back and look at why the Covid-19 crisis has changed the outcome space for global inflation. Inflationary risks are now larger than dis inflationary risks for …

His Mouth to Their Ears

Someday I will write about the curious relationship between daddy Fed, the bedtime story, and the stock market. For now we are cruising at new highs and mile 449 1/2 is support. That early day purple line seems to confirm the trend line in the lower channel. Hey this is acting like the bottom side …

Girl Friday

The hangover from the money drop Wednesday night carried over. The traders put their cash on the line and no one was there to buy from them. Notice that when the buy volume nearly stops, that sets up the quick market drop. A flash liquidity crash if you will. The money flows rebounded a bit, …

A micro signal makes the macro call….

Maybe it's the low volume, and yet that is pretty big dump at the close. Note the pan shaped formation in the MFI. Quick Review: These are the three representations of money flow. MFI of the middle bar is the fastest. OBV at the bottom, is the middle kingdom, and Accumulation Distribution is the slowest. …

Short term Views

Expect follow through selling tomorrow more consistent with the twin views from Headline News. The Virtual Jackson H-ologram, and GDP, which is a non-event, a lagging indicator. The Cassandras are missing one key factor in their fall market crash, money flows. Gold found a bottom and that is good, it's starting to look like the …

Headline News

I see two ways for the market to go higher here, one slower than the other. However as I speak we are at new highs and it seems likely that prices will drop below that line before too long. These rallies need to tap three times to really get going. Naturally a break back below …

Money Flows Strong

The money flows dumped slightly at the close. The trend lines were broken and some bit of walking around them to indicate that these might have some relevance. When the Fed minutes came out the market dived, then the money bought it back up, the algos as it were, and it all looked copacetic. The …

WARNING the MONEY FLOWS are not currently a reliable indicator

I guess money is renewable energy. We can always make more. It's not as though we are using up precious stuff, trees for paper, or electricity for computer keyboards. Human beings sucked just a ton of carbon out the earth which took trillions of years to create - in just a few centuries. We could …

Clash Frash

Chris V at TTT has an interesting call on the market, he is essentially bullish with a "flash crash" warning and his historical analogy is the 2015 Flash Crash. So here's a look. Quick study of the 2015 flash crash... Item 1) the money flows were already declining well before the event. 2) Volume was …

Before you can Crash Down, you need to Crash UP!

APOCALYPSE WARNING!! This ship is headed for the rocks, but before that happens it will sprout wings and fly. Wherever we cast aspersions, begin with the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, who has earned 7 million dollars in speaking fees, her salary is a 1/4 million A YEAR. What do you think she told these investment …

Pay No Attention to Anything but the Money

I thought about half an hour before the close they would finish at 442. If this was a options expiration day I would have gamed the calls. The long side is a worry, the money flows stumbled, although the Banks are all in, OBV is intermediate timed trades, they can turn around quickly. The A/D …

We didn’t close the gap

Normally I would say if you wanted continuation to the downside, that gap should have closed. A small thing perhaps. Does that mean we are going higher? Nooooo. What it may mean is that this move will take a few days of drifting to the downside in order to resolve. Before we can down, really …

August is the coolest month

So far the markets have done a better job (of figuring out their own future) than the Fed's dot plot. Yields came back to earth. The Fed is "puzzled", the market keeps bulling ahead. What happens when the yield curve inverts again? No problem... A/D is the new money, and here is prediction ONE. The …

Lazy frenzied summer seasonal buying in the US stock market

Old stock market axiom: "Sell in May and go away??" What and miss this show? My interest here is on the long side, those money flows are pristine. The Fed gave out some wobbly advice, inflation might last a little longer than we thought. Watching the slow motion action here you can see just how …

Turning Turning Turning

Dollar has some headwinds. While this chart looks like ripe fruit ready to fall, the 1/2 point is more positive. The purple trend line is 1/2 pt resistance. The green horizontal is 1/2 pt bullish objective. If we wake up tomorrow and the dollar is at 99, then we have broken the 1/2 pt line …

Stairway to Heaven (post FOMC)

I got a lot of this right I think. Some of the moves today are traders reallocating, and it means nothing, or in the case of Gold it might be chance to pick up some product. Now to take it apart. The money flows are even better... The guns are loaded. The active fault line …

Flat Lining (or putting the bid under a fiat based market)

The market appears to be consolidating with the likely outcome being toward a break higher. The money flows are good (or the cash). The selloff yesterday looks like a springboard to new highs. Nothing is going to break this market, other than a rogue asteroid. On the list of crazy things that can kill you. …

Note on a Bullish tenor

The Pink trend line connects the highs in the chart since 2009. That would imply prices are a bit overextended here. Assume that to be the case, where does the market correct to meet the confluence of the support and resistance line. You can see that number is way off the chart out there near …

Are we inside the TURN???

To complete this thought, VOLUME would need to exceed the March high to complete the volume ramp comparison. If that is the case then perhaps the 21' TURN is the 95' turn and we have a bull market ahead of us for several years. The things that maybe aren't the same, is the dollar, which …

This guy deserves an Academy Award

Never TAPER never talk about TAPERING, and let them wonder whether you are going to raise short term rates or push through YCC and buy long term bonds, hey just BUY EVERYTHING JEROME. Later on take what you don't need back to the store, and have them put it back on the your credit card …

Shakeout five nineteen

That last yellow circle overbought while trying to make the days highs and with money flows eroding beneath the surface may just be the marker to the high above the next leg down. The possible diamond formation could break either way. Perhaps the last money flows in the last minute will give us a clue. …

Gaps Fill, Fillings fall out…(update 5/18)

This is what happened previously. I predicted in simplified textbook fashion how the top might play out, and the market in it's own way fashioned a similar version. 412 looked at though it was solid, especially after the market made new highs. The comment on the many tests of 412 drawing prices through turned to …

Yellen pulls rug (on whom?) and the Bull market finds itself looking up at resistance: Update May 6th

Jay Powell is on a short leash. He has another Fed chief over him, and she is not reluctant to wear both hats. She dropped a comment about rising interest rates which this hyper jumpy market took to heart, then she walked them back. Now the market is staring up at the ceiling and the …

Money, Money and more Fred Graphs [the Fed PUT is over]

The upper chart is the rise in the size of the money supply. Notice the dramatic improvement. Since the chart of GDP does not match that of the money supply, we have to assume that this rise is based on the additional money that the Fed has been adding to the economy, or new money, …

The Great Cash Dump and the Silver Dump Truck

Thursday the market was down a percent on news of a capital gains tax, but it quickly regained all that the next day. Glass half full, this bull market has a lot of power left, glass half empty, traders are sitting on the edge, and a very small event could push them over. The current …

Gaps fill, the Dollar pulls back, Gold readies, Silver is fractious at the gate. Hi Yo Silver? (annotated 4/21)

Two days forward (new highs) and one step back to square one, (recent new highs). The thin green line is a recent high and not much value there, The light blue line is the GAP, and that should fill. There is a confluence with the diagonal trend line (red) which provides additional support. Below that …

Where money is worth nothing

All bubbles come to this place where the currency cannot keep pace with the assets. No one wants the currency, and everyone wants the underlying. At that moment those who hold the assets find the greater risk in exchanging assets, for cash, by selling them in the market. The risk far outweighs the perils of …

Inflation: Truth or Dare

In Old Tools I kicked around the inflation issue. Anecdotal evidence is always popular. Here are the charts to help make the case, whatever that might be, for or against. The financial firms are buying up XES, because? Gasoline is $4 a gallon and that is a bullish fundamental. The money flows are not that …

Old Tools

The XAU to Dow Industrials, ratio called the turn at 2000 highs in the market. The XAU is a measure of gold mining companies, an option chain without a tradeable index. The reason for using this is history, there is more on the left side of the chart, and secondly the XAU is not subject …

Hunting the Great White Way

The caption here might be "Give it to me Joe, right between the eyes.." Throughout this drama the Trump allies are always ready to play the foils. Plowing through cardboard obstacles in the rise to the top, is also what gives Wall Street the bends. In previous posts I wrote about White Monday, the anti-dystopian …

One Minute Moves

After a repeating pattern of dark cloud covers, in various forms, and double tops on green shadows, the market rise to daily 1% immortality took a breather. I know you are asking why didn't the white support line hold early in the day and it did later? Simple, the money was all over the place, …

Second Best Shot at Gold/Silver

Lots of moving parts here to review: 1) When equities are risk on, money moves out of Precious Metals and into stocks. 2) Gold is inversely correlated to rising bond yields and a rising dollar. 3) Gold is an inflation hedge, ostensibly. 4) With the introduction of the GLD ETF, gold trades more like a …

My Best Shot on Gold

When the dollar gives another sell signal on point and figure, at 89, then the headwinds on the precious metals should come off, and yields will stop rising, perhaps. That would portend a washout drop in the dollar, and that we could guess would correlate to a sharp rise in the precious metals, much like …

Expanding Triangles: A study in bull and bear markets, March 25th

This was the prologue to yesterdays upmove. Next we see what really happened. The expanding triangle (March 25th) broke the lower bound but managed to break higher anyway. Interesting the money flows were poor on the breakout, except for MFI. By April 27th the outcome on two expanding triangles was slightly different. The first (bearish) …

Bad news Friday (August 9th, 2020)

Palladium is a precious industrial metal used in automobile catalytic converters. The market for these things applies equally to used cars as well as new. While OEM cats are very good, after market cats are good for maybe a few years. They come in all prices ranges. Some analysts believe these side markets, Palladium and …

Return of Jumping the Shark !!!

September 18th, 2019..... The line in the water was crossed, again and again. Since technical lines of support resistance tend to be hard lines, this sort of fuzzy logic must seem confusing to newcomers to the field of technical analysis. A full explanation to follow A couple things about monetary fueled markets. They don't follow …

Gold Silver : the Trade

Some inquiries about the Silver trade. Refer to recent posts on Silver. The Gold/Silver ratio has dropped and I am sure a lot of experts are saying, "BUT it's way too LOW!!", just as they kept telling us it was way too high at 80. The setup for a big move in Silver is in …