If you like Gold you should like stocks in the general. The two run up on the same fuel, money. Paper money is coming out of the hopper so fast the Wall St. [Underpants] Gnomes cannot put that money to work. The real danger?? is a melt-UP. To get there we should assume there is … Continue reading Gilded Equities
One equity analyst said "Keep your head on a swivel.." The sirens at 344 and 333 are singing. Not that it represents much of a drop, but in the "break one, break em' all..." scenario, the drop to below 333 is significant in that it removes three lines of support in a short distance. We … Continue reading Tales of Brave Ulysses
The super bullish open that was completely retraced is quietly being clawed back. The move never had the support of the money flows. Then they got deeply oversold on the pullback, and when everything was going to hell, the money slowly started to come back in. That line around 356 is like a weather vane, … Continue reading Fear of the Future(s) me too!
This is about cutting through the crap, or more euphemistically, walking a mile in the other guys mocassins. I learned going to the race track, that your outcome for the year depends probably on one or two days, or if you are lucky one or two weeks. When the right bet comes along, it often … Continue reading The View From Afar
In this shorter time frame you can see the punk money flows, which leads us to the casual question, where is the buying coming from, and that is obvious, THE FUTURES MARKET... And the FUTURES market implies an element of foreign interest. Yes the dollar has been much better the last few days, and PMs … Continue reading Gang Banger Rally (Jets and Sharks, retro update!)
Covid has unleashed a gigantic power grab by the extra wealthy 1% of Americans (who managed to profit obscenely from the monetary expansion). Mortgages in forbearance usually signals a decline in the housing industry, yet home sales are strong?! The wealthy are buying assets, including the best Real Estate they can at any price. Climate change has changed everything, and the … Continue reading Your Bipartisan Post-Election Night Market and Economic Compendium
The news all over Yahoo is that the president is losing the election and he plans to try and steal the results. Meanwhile Wall St grinds higher, attempting to fulfill the best case scenario I posted in the 1029 SPY chart. I basically repeated it with more attention to the bullish outcome. The MFI must … Continue reading And a not-news driven market??
cucuy (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=cucuy) EL Cucuy is a Mexican urban legend. Legend says it that once upon a time a father was really angry at his kids for misbehaving. As a matter of punishment, he decided to lock his kids in his closet to learn their lesson. After a while, he decided to go to town and run some errands but he … Continue reading Cucuy
When they sell them they sell them hard. Here is the Bull Plan to get back to the business of inflating asset prices. There are three levels of resistance, my one minute chart confirmed itself today, and now the 'C' line is the first obstacle and since it is a falling target that goal should … Continue reading No Shame on the Downside
The election is only a pregnant pause at this moment. While momentous the outcome is fairly predictable, even if the incumbent president does somehow win reelection, he has no mandate, hence his extreme statements and views are those of a man with no control over events, (like the pandemic.) Articles suggesting a full government moon … Continue reading The cards have already been turned over
XLF is the ETF for the financial sector, the big banks and investment firms. To review the A/D line is NEW MONEY, the OBV is position trades, this is stocks the investment banks buy and resell later to their clients, and MFI is short term momentum, day traders and the like. Should that be the … Continue reading XLF
This chart dovetails with some short term objectives. According to sources in the market, and whenever a soft consensus like this exists you take the information at face value, the expectation is that the market will go on hold from now until the election. That is really asking a lot, the presumed president elect has … Continue reading On the other side of resistence, in the same place we were in June, May I offer my support…..
Inside the turn refers to the 94' crash in money flows, which had no effect on stock prices or buying. The 94' leap ahead began at the bottom of an expanding triangle, a megaphone signal. In the current context we are moving off the 332.85 support line. By analogy the line fills the same role … Continue reading We May Be Inside the Turn Right Now
The turn in 95' included what looks like a large block of tax season sellers who were caught on the wrong side of the bullish turn in the market. When they finally unlocked 30 days later the combined flow of assets from traders, funds and buy and hold investors was phenomenal. The investment banks made … Continue reading Inside the turn
At the turn in late 95' the VIX started to show a change in it's own volatility, (gamma - was there a gamma trade back then?) and there is the familiar pitchfork low, also the same in the dollar. By late 98' VIX started to pullback while the stock market kept on going. That brings … Continue reading Giant 90’s Stock Rally!!
Silver is taking the bigger hit today, and Gold is not showing any signs of the panic buying that would get the ratio to parity. We have probably already retraced the same level in the Gold/Silver ratio at the arrow, and if the rest of the chart plays out, Silver is a great investment for … Continue reading pLAN b
Basically we went from an economic foundation of zero to 5 trillion in ten years with no inflation. There was a lot of asset inflation, and it was offset by labor offshoring and lower energy prices achieved through financial credit expansion of corporate debt. The Accumulation/Distribution line is a volume oscillator which was created to … Continue reading Inside the playbook in a busted season
Options expiration is known for volatility. In an Uber volatile trading world, today is relatively tame. The Bullish setup here is for the purple line to be CONFIRMED, then price either breaks above that line or falls back into the soup. The bulls would prefer moving the price back into No Man's Land, which offers … Continue reading Dynamic Tech Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMAIsqvTh7g They keep tap tapping on the support line like it doesn't really matter.. What they are trying to do here, is BLUFF THE FED into giving them something... We break this support line and it gets really ugly JEROME, you want that to happen JEROME. A nervous Jay Powell asked yesterday, HAVEN'T WE DONE … Continue reading Stuck in the middle with you..
You can see the soldiers rushed into battle without any generals, (or bullets). However maybe the Cavalry is coming. or let's call this market action "Bluff the Fed, day.." If we take em' up a percent and a half without any money action the selloff could be ugly. May also be Stevie M. is working … Continue reading A Monday Melt-Up with Artificial Sweeteners…
At the moment the double bottom in the top chart, dashed orange line in the lower charts, is breaking. Should we close down here, then it becomes a matter for the overnight futures on Monday to resolve the issue. Let me say that Treasury and Fed are going to be extremely proactive at this point. … Continue reading Short Term Turning Point (A dance step back)
This may be a better chart. The basis of the projection is another post I made in which I said the stock market rally to S&P 4000 needed a catalyst, some bit of selling to get the weak hands out, and put strong hands in control. This is part of the narrative about the Call … Continue reading White Monday Pt 2 (update 9/9)
There is a good chance as we approach this fall stock market season that a crash will happen. Here we explore the possibility of a CRASH UP! Yes there are signs in this market that stocks are hard to find. The relentless bidding higher of assets, based on plenty of borrowed cash, has spilled over … Continue reading White Monday
Prices can take out the orange line without bothering the first blue line. Below the blue line exists the possibility of STOCK MARKET HELL. Before counting all the data and making some empirical judgment let's ask ourselves, "do we really deserve this kind of abuse.." We seem to lead a charmed life. When the president … Continue reading Game Plan
Prices dropped to the 336 area quickly, and now it is crunch time. Play and Pray... The action suggests a break. Time to paint the pictures with words. As Jesse Felder points out, the options market has blown up. Market makers can't raise premiums fast enough. https://thefelderreport.com/2020/09/02/a-speculative-feeding-frenzy-like-weve-never-seen-before/ I was in there yesterday and the OI … Continue reading “This line is in play…” breaking news update….
In charting images repeat themselves, especially at crucial turning points. Here is the setup chart for the last few days. What caught my eye was the crowding against the upper right hand corner of the Diamond. Price is hanging despite the collapse in money flow A/D. The money has been ultra reliable here, so before … Continue reading The Setup
To make a bullish break with these two descending blue lines price should establish a uptrend, either support or resistance, tomorrow, or soon thereafter. Tomorrow is options expiration, and the last month the signals were bullish. I got completely crossed up and the market took a long dive. Tomorrow could easily be a repeat of … Continue reading Short and Long of IT
This might take a day to resolve itself. The news is last months FOMC minutes and Trumps dalliance with Russian whores. It all adds up, somehow. Cumulatively, like all these broken bearish indicators, like Diamonds and such. Somewhere down there is the turn that will provide a major gap up in the buying. That should … Continue reading Chart Toppings
A premise in this stock market has been to hold long term bearish positions and use short term bullish positions to hedge. Now is time for a different tack. There is a small likelihood that the stock market will correct between now and the election. Federal Reserve policy is there to ensure stability in that … Continue reading Tacking
They tried to spin the unemployment report. Kudlow got on PBS and was by his standards, respectful. He spun few cobwebs, She politely rebuffed him, and they moved on the great divide in the spending bill. The markets were ready for melt up Monday. They might still take a shot at it. The indexes did … Continue reading Bad news Friday
Chart one, if the money flattens out as it has done in previous situations similar to this, we can still get some nice gains from the SPY, but maybe not the fireworks. My gut says fireworks. Main theme in all these charts is that investment banks are buying. When you buy a share today from … Continue reading A lotta charts, and a few words
My deepest sympathies to the people of Lebanon. I hope one day soon we are all in a kinder gentler place... The case for S&P 4000 is presumably as irrational as everything else. This just seems to be the way we are going. "As we begin, so shall we go.." We started all this once … Continue reading The case for S&P 4000
My methods are innovative. I use one minute charts and I extend them for days and even months. My Jump the Shark Line, (300.85) goes back to last fall! I focus on the very first few minutes of the day, and identify trend lines which are either ascending or descending, very seldom flat, and which … Continue reading One minute to eternity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyJUmK3fUTs The turning of the guard is the turning of the screw and the changing of the guard in one motion... The president is out, no other reason for CBS to give him an infomercial, (and Fox to invite him to cry on Chris Wallace's shoulder) except he is the president, and they do care … Continue reading The turning of the guard….
The peak in the 50DMA coincides with the same May time period in the Mirror. Within 50 days the calculations become doubtful while they are derived from information which is 'off' the chart on the left. That is real data and the right side we cannot know yet. My instincts allow for the VIX to … Continue reading The VIX Mirror, Part II
In late 99' there was a burst of monetary stimulus, predicated on inoculating the markets against the effects of Y2K, which was a threat to the newly formed electronic banking system. Since then any excuse will do. The upshot all this money printing is the damping effect on economic growth, or money velocity. These three … Continue reading Where the money never stops…
Following the 1998 rate cuts into a speculative stock market, and then facing the threat of Y2K, which is the computer variation of the Corona Virus. The result was a permanent flattening of the Yield Curve, which did not finally steepen until the stock market crashed, or perhaps because of it. The last instance of … Continue reading “Let’s do the Twist, like we did last summer….”
American pragmatism is globally unique. The conspiracy theory surrounding the Corona Virus is built by the Alt Right, and the Democrats used the crisis as a cover to defeat Donald Trump in 2020. How they knew the virus crisis would defeat him, not make him look the powerful leader they know he really is, how … Continue reading The Church of What’s Happening Now
Here is a quick list of quotes you will hear in the future: "We never thought the virus was a threat to the population at large, but rather certain individuals. What it did pose was a sort of secondary threat to our health system. We weren't prepared, and our hospitals, and healthcare system, workers, and … Continue reading Future Quotes
We broke out of the range all the way to 295 or so and then fell back below 287, which I contend may be the new Jump the Shark line. There is a new daily line at 286, which is currently resistance. If can get back above that 286, then the 287 line comes into … Continue reading A whole new way of thinking
Update 10/08: A mirror chart assumes the left side can be reversed on the right side. There is very little standard charting work to suggest this is necessarily valid, though I have seen chartists do this, and that is where I got the idea. The rationale behind applying this, and actually seeing it work, the … Continue reading Through the VIX Looking Glass updated 10/07 with concurrent call from Under the Shark Volcano..
September 18th, 2019..... The line in the water was crossed, again and again. Since technical lines of support resistance tend to be hard lines, this sort of fuzzy logic must seem confusing to newcomers to the field of technical analysis. A full explanation to follow We keep returning to this level, we may as well … Continue reading Return of Jumping the Shark !!!
We could already have established a benchmark on the YC at around that historic .2 level. The hidden signal here is the ROC, or Rate of Change. Circa 94 the ROC was a modest 200. In the current situation it has already hit 600 which is still much lower than the alarm bell readings in … Continue reading Yield Curve History (Update 11/06) incl PREQUEL to “Yield Curve Intolerant”