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Waste Deep in the Big Muddy

when you're up to your neck in alligators, it's hard to remember that your initial objective was to drain the swamp It's tough being in over your head, so you want a lot of people around you, good people. The segway this week is Operation Twist. Lots of charts, from the Feds targeting of the … Continue reading Waste Deep in the Big Muddy

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The Set-UP, January 8th (new bear market warning!!) Jan. 9th followup

for strictly educational purposes okay? 324 may be the top for a while. When the SPY didn't get overbought on a relief rally it set off all sorts of sirens. Yesterdays bland BULLISH! opening may be a foreshadowing. Today seems to have similar characteristics. Trend lines when they get over extended often act like magnets … Continue reading The Set-UP, January 8th (new bear market warning!!) Jan. 9th followup

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Hostilities Break Out: Bear Market could follow. I did say that Trump would NUKE IRAN?? See 2020 Predictions

The market has three ways to go, up, down or sideways. Traders respect that last one is difficult to trade, with the VIX at lows, option premium is not high enough to warrant selling. The Bears can hold positions, (never short a quiet market) but those maintenance costs add up. In addition to up there … Continue reading Hostilities Break Out: Bear Market could follow. I did say that Trump would NUKE IRAN?? See 2020 Predictions

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Some 2020 Predictions.

While markets rally on the talk of impeachment, you have to wonder? What if the president were to leave office? No more tariff wars, surreptitiously targeting companies for punishment, and reward? Business planning takes years, and you can take apart a plan with one tweet? Nancy Pelosi should have been Time Person of the Year, … Continue reading Some 2020 Predictions.

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Trader Talk: Bear Market Hostilities PTII update 1212

If OBV (buyers) can lift it above the redline they can certainly do 316 or the top of the channel. Depending on how long it takes maybe higher. Right now on the intraday the AD has come back but the buyers are not involved. From the above I wouldn't expect the AD to show you … Continue reading Trader Talk: Bear Market Hostilities PTII update 1212

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Live from the front lines. Bear Market hostilities break out! (update 1204)

This writer continues to amaze over the markets obsession with the Trade talks, (or walking us back to the pre-tariff era, which the trade wars ended) but there is another view. Why Trade talks are really important. China imports 100M BBLs of oil a month from the US, pumped from the ground using easy credit, … Continue reading Live from the front lines. Bear Market hostilities break out! (update 1204)

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Interview with Tad Rivelle, notes on the capital formation process (annotated)

DAS INTERVIEW┬źA Liquidity Crisis Is All but Inevitable┬╗Tad Rivelle, Chief Investment Officer of the Californian bond house TCW, doubts that the Central Banks can prevent the impending economic downturn. He spots increasing signs of stress in the credit sector and recommends holding safe assets to be prepared for turmoil in the financial markets. Christoph Gisiger25.11.2019, … Continue reading Interview with Tad Rivelle, notes on the capital formation process (annotated)

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Should I Stay or Should I Go…

Courtesy of the Clash.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN1WwnEDWAM I have offhand plans to depart USofA. A lot, maybe all of it depends not on Donald Trump but the people who vote for him. How far are they going to take this? Then the market crash seems imminent, and it always does and part of me agrees with that … Continue reading Should I Stay or Should I Go…

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Yield Curve non-reinversion of 94 Simplified

From the analysts seat the thing to watch is ROC. Rate of Change is very simple, and does not rely on any interpretation of price action volume or such. It seems clear the 98 rate cut decisions threw accelerated the YC which inverted. That level, about 600 is very similar to what the ROC in … Continue reading Yield Curve non-reinversion of 94 Simplified

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Yield Curve History (Update 11/06) incl PREQUEL to “Yield Curve Intolerant”

We could already have established a benchmark on the YC at around that historic .2 level. The hidden signal here is the ROC, or Rate of Change. Circa 94 the ROC was a modest 200. In the current situation it has already hit 600 which is still much lower than the alarm bell readings in … Continue reading Yield Curve History (Update 11/06) incl PREQUEL to “Yield Curve Intolerant”