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Stairway to Heaven (post FOMC)

I got a lot of this right I think. Some of the moves today are traders reallocating, and it means nothing, or in the case of Gold it might be chance to pick up some product. Now to take it apart. The money flows are even better... The guns are loaded. The active fault line … Continue reading Stairway to Heaven (post FOMC)

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Flat Lining (or putting the bid under a fiat based market)

The market appears to be consolidating with the likely outcome being toward a break higher. The money flows are good (or the cash). The selloff yesterday looks like a springboard to new highs. Nothing is going to break this market, other than a rogue asteroid. On the list of crazy things that can kill you. … Continue reading Flat Lining (or putting the bid under a fiat based market)

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Gaps Fill, Fillings fall out…(update 5/18)

This is what happened previously. I predicted in simplified textbook fashion how the top might play out, and the market in it's own way fashioned a similar version. 412 looked at though it was solid, especially after the market made new highs. The comment on the many tests of 412 drawing prices through turned to … Continue reading Gaps Fill, Fillings fall out…(update 5/18)

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Yellen pulls rug (on whom?) and the Bull market finds itself looking up at resistance: Update May 6th

Jay Powell is on a short leash. He has another Fed chief over him, and she is not reluctant to wear both hats. She dropped a comment about rising interest rates which this hyper jumpy market took to heart, then she walked them back. Now the market is staring up at the ceiling and the … Continue reading Yellen pulls rug (on whom?) and the Bull market finds itself looking up at resistance: Update May 6th

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Money, Money and more Fred Graphs [the Fed PUT is over]

The upper chart is the rise in the size of the money supply. Notice the dramatic improvement. Since the chart of GDP does not match that of the money supply, we have to assume that this rise is based on the additional money that the Fed has been adding to the economy, or new money, … Continue reading Money, Money and more Fred Graphs [the Fed PUT is over]

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The Great Cash Dump and the Silver Dump Truck

Thursday the market was down a percent on news of a capital gains tax, but it quickly regained all that the next day. Glass half full, this bull market has a lot of power left, glass half empty, traders are sitting on the edge, and a very small event could push them over. The current … Continue reading The Great Cash Dump and the Silver Dump Truck

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Gaps fill, the Dollar pulls back, Gold readies, Silver is fractious at the gate. Hi Yo Silver? (annotated 4/21)

Two days forward (new highs) and one step back to square one, (recent new highs). The thin green line is a recent high and not much value there, The light blue line is the GAP, and that should fill. There is a confluence with the diagonal trend line (red) which provides additional support. Below that … Continue reading Gaps fill, the Dollar pulls back, Gold readies, Silver is fractious at the gate. Hi Yo Silver? (annotated 4/21)

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Expanding Triangles: A study in bull and bear markets, March 25th

This was the prologue to yesterdays upmove. Next we see what really happened. The expanding triangle (March 25th) broke the lower bound but managed to break higher anyway. Interesting the money flows were poor on the breakout, except for MFI. By April 27th the outcome on two expanding triangles was slightly different. The first (bearish) … Continue reading Expanding Triangles: A study in bull and bear markets, March 25th

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A river of money, a fish swimming upstream, and a bear

The upper white line has been breached at the highs. The left side of the top is the source of the line, another one minute triple top. This line has symmetry as they say. The issue here is the money bowl. Is it forming? A break of the money lows would end the upwelling rise … Continue reading A river of money, a fish swimming upstream, and a bear

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Despite the panic, shouting, screaming, and screeching of tires, nobody was hurt in this accident (so far)

Watching the action today, I thought man we are really screwed. Jerome and the Fed keep shrugging things off, inflation, who cares, bring it on ? Yields rising, might be a good thing Even the brief liquidity moment in the bond market. Non sequitur. Sure enough if you focus on the month, March isn't so … Continue reading Despite the panic, shouting, screaming, and screeching of tires, nobody was hurt in this accident (so far)

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A Simple Desultory Philipic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_u2AI7ZWAk&authuser=0 Take it from the mess in his office, that Stan Drunkenmiller is focused. Chaos provides clarity, the one thing that makes you consider what's' really important... No room for sentimentality, or bourgeois norms still I wonder if he is right about China. Can we trust their GDP numbers??.. The casual viewer will suppose that … Continue reading A Simple Desultory Philipic

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Early Call on OIL Services (XES)

There was a lot of inaugural enthusiasm the last few days, and relief that the ceremony come off without any problems. Meanwhile maybe prices have gotten ahead of themselves. To go down the list here, the analysts are all pounding the table on the CYCLICALS, and when they do that with such a dubious fundamental … Continue reading Early Call on OIL Services (XES)

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Twenty Zero, Twenty One

End of the year stock market tax loss selling is occuring, probably, but the ongoing shortage in stocks relative to the money available to buy (or borrow) available shares obscures the evidence. The measure of this buying and selling is Accumulation and Distribution, A/D. Before the massive global money pumping mania, these money flows were … Continue reading Twenty Zero, Twenty One

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Condensed Version of the late 94′ Bull Market Liftoff

The moment in time where the process will mirror the 94' Bull Market Liftoff, gets a bit closer with each trading day. Caveats: ONE) I do not really expect to see a sharp drop in the A/D line related to year end selling. The A/D line has in the modern context become an indicator of … Continue reading Condensed Version of the late 94′ Bull Market Liftoff

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Bad news Friday (August 9th, 2020)

Palladium is a precious industrial metal used in automobile catalytic converters. The market for these things applies equally to used cars as well as new. While OEM cats are very good, after market cats are good for maybe a few years. They come in all prices ranges. Some analysts believe these side markets, Palladium and … Continue reading Bad news Friday (August 9th, 2020)