Stairway to Heaven (post FOMC)

I got a lot of this right I think. Some of the moves today are traders reallocating, and it means nothing, or in the case of Gold it might be chance to pick up some product. Now to take it apart. The money flows are even better... The guns are loaded. The active fault line …

Flat Lining (or putting the bid under a fiat based market)

The market appears to be consolidating with the likely outcome being toward a break higher. The money flows are good (or the cash). The selloff yesterday looks like a springboard to new highs. Nothing is going to break this market, other than a rogue asteroid. On the list of crazy things that can kill you. …

Note on a Bullish tenor

The Pink trend line connects the highs in the chart since 2009. That would imply prices are a bit overextended here. Assume that to be the case, where does the market correct to meet the confluence of the support and resistance line. You can see that number is way off the chart out there near …

Are we inside the TURN???

To complete this thought, VOLUME would need to exceed the March high to complete the volume ramp comparison. If that is the case then perhaps the 21' TURN is the 95' turn and we have a bull market ahead of us for several years. The things that maybe aren't the same, is the dollar, which …

This guy deserves an Academy Award

Never TAPER never talk about TAPERING, and let them wonder whether you are going to raise short term rates or push through YCC and buy long term bonds, hey just BUY EVERYTHING JEROME. Later on take what you don't need back to the store, and have them put it back on the your credit card …

Shakeout five nineteen

That last yellow circle overbought while trying to make the days highs and with money flows eroding beneath the surface may just be the marker to the high above the next leg down. The possible diamond formation could break either way. Perhaps the last money flows in the last minute will give us a clue. …

Gaps Fill, Fillings fall out…(update 5/18)

This is what happened previously. I predicted in simplified textbook fashion how the top might play out, and the market in it's own way fashioned a similar version. 412 looked at though it was solid, especially after the market made new highs. The comment on the many tests of 412 drawing prices through turned to …

Yellen pulls rug (on whom?) and the Bull market finds itself looking up at resistance: Update May 6th

Jay Powell is on a short leash. He has another Fed chief over him, and she is not reluctant to wear both hats. She dropped a comment about rising interest rates which this hyper jumpy market took to heart, then she walked them back. Now the market is staring up at the ceiling and the …

Money, Money and more Fred Graphs [the Fed PUT is over]

The upper chart is the rise in the size of the money supply. Notice the dramatic improvement. Since the chart of GDP does not match that of the money supply, we have to assume that this rise is based on the additional money that the Fed has been adding to the economy, or new money, …

The Great Cash Dump and the Silver Dump Truck

Thursday the market was down a percent on news of a capital gains tax, but it quickly regained all that the next day. Glass half full, this bull market has a lot of power left, glass half empty, traders are sitting on the edge, and a very small event could push them over. The current …

Gaps fill, the Dollar pulls back, Gold readies, Silver is fractious at the gate. Hi Yo Silver? (annotated 4/21)

Two days forward (new highs) and one step back to square one, (recent new highs). The thin green line is a recent high and not much value there, The light blue line is the GAP, and that should fill. There is a confluence with the diagonal trend line (red) which provides additional support. Below that …

Where money is worth nothing

All bubbles come to this place where the currency cannot keep pace with the assets. No one wants the currency, and everyone wants the underlying. At that moment those who hold the assets find the greater risk in exchanging assets, for cash, by selling them in the market. The risk far outweighs the perils of …

Inflation: Truth or Dare

In Old Tools I kicked around the inflation issue. Anecdotal evidence is always popular. Here are the charts to help make the case, whatever that might be, for or against. The financial firms are buying up XES, because? Gasoline is $4 a gallon and that is a bullish fundamental. The money flows are not that …

Old Tools

The XAU to Dow Industrials, ratio called the turn at 2000 highs in the market. The XAU is a measure of gold mining companies, an option chain without a tradeable index. The reason for using this is history, there is more on the left side of the chart, and secondly the XAU is not subject …

Hunting the Great White Way

The caption here might be "Give it to me Joe, right between the eyes.." Throughout this drama the Trump allies are always ready to play the foils. Plowing through cardboard obstacles in the rise to the top, is also what gives Wall Street the bends. In previous posts I wrote about White Monday, the anti-dystopian …

One Minute Moves

After a repeating pattern of dark cloud covers, in various forms, and double tops on green shadows, the market rise to daily 1% immortality took a breather. I know you are asking why didn't the white support line hold early in the day and it did later? Simple, the money was all over the place, …

Second Best Shot at Gold/Silver

Lots of moving parts here to review: 1) When equities are risk on, money moves out of Precious Metals and into stocks. 2) Gold is inversely correlated to rising bond yields and a rising dollar. 3) Gold is an inflation hedge, ostensibly. 4) With the introduction of the GLD ETF, gold trades more like a …

My Best Shot on Gold

When the dollar gives another sell signal on point and figure, at 89, then the headwinds on the precious metals should come off, and yields will stop rising, perhaps. That would portend a washout drop in the dollar, and that we could guess would correlate to a sharp rise in the precious metals, much like …

Expanding Triangles: A study in bull and bear markets, March 25th

This was the prologue to yesterdays upmove. Next we see what really happened. The expanding triangle (March 25th) broke the lower bound but managed to break higher anyway. Interesting the money flows were poor on the breakout, except for MFI. By April 27th the outcome on two expanding triangles was slightly different. The first (bearish) …

A river of money, a fish swimming upstream, and a bear

The upper white line has been breached at the highs. The left side of the top is the source of the line, another one minute triple top. This line has symmetry as they say. The issue here is the money bowl. Is it forming? A break of the money lows would end the upwelling rise …

Fed Measling

Clear from the get go that not saying certain things was the markets "secret" agenda in this FOMC meeting. Let's pretend Powell is puppet of Wall Street for the moment. I thought they would save their AMMO to fire, and they did. While the money flows were ripping, the futures were dipping and the 1 …

You don’t see this every day

The One Minute trend line popped up in the first two bars but did not confirm for a few hours, then the line was walked up and down without showing much character. Finally they went down and tried to rally back but failed to remain above the 1 minute line for more than a few …

The Money Rides to the Rescue?

The selling didn't really end, but the prices did stage a return to the highs. In classic terms that is a divergence in money flows. Distribution at the top. Here's why in a monied market signs of impending slowdown don't always work out that way. This example in 2019 (when things were normal) you can …

This horse is on the gam(bit)

In Horse Racing when a horse breaks on the bit he is fractious and hard to control and expends his energy in the early stages of the race and has nothing left for the finish. A gambit is an opening move like in chess designed to gain an advantage. A boat race on the other …

Looking at the bounce in Gold

The 2011 chart of Gold v Silver offers some help. The reversal was sharp, and it correlates with a top in UST5Y yields and the YC2Y. We might expect this one to be sharp as well while gold remains oversold. Gold can bounce back to the 50dma, with no alteration in the fundamentals. Now we …

Another day, another market

Suddenly! Gold shot up 2% along with stocks (ALL-IN-ONE) and bond fund ETFs finally converted some of those money flows into buying. This a complicated narrative, so here we go. Fall of 2019 the Fed announces 60B in QE, they also lowered FFR, while the markets were at their highs and this was the result. …

RESISTANCE ABOVE

This go around the market is testing resistance rather than support, a subtle psychological shift. If they fail to make new highs, the Bear market will assert itself. Think of this market like the upcoming earnings annoucement in which the stock buyers run up the price of the stock ahead of the date, on over …

Inauguration Day

It isn't a great trend line, but there were three points and I connected them. Yellow Arrows. Price tested the line and rejected it at the first Red Arrow, the rebounded for a second test, rejected shortly and finally got through on the 4th test, actually the 7th test of the line. The mony flows …

Despite the panic, shouting, screaming, and screeching of tires, nobody was hurt in this accident (so far)

Watching the action today, I thought man we are really screwed. Jerome and the Fed keep shrugging things off, inflation, who cares, bring it on ? Yields rising, might be a good thing Even the brief liquidity moment in the bond market. Non sequitur. Sure enough if you focus on the month, March isn't so …

Yields and Rate of Change

Deep in the vault here is a piece I did on Yield Curve De-Inversion. I found out what everyone knows, when the Yield Curve inverts and then recovers, the stock market goes into decline. Now what everyone knows isn't worth much is it? Maybe this time is different. I put the Five Year US Treasury …

Paths of Glory

We have to take the Anthill... Bonus Gold Charts at the bottom.. We're going to do this a bit differently. Normally we have support levels, which invariably are broken on the short term charts but rebound in time to save the Bulls. This time we lay down the gauntlet. Those white lines are where the …

A Simple Desultory Philipic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_u2AI7ZWAk&authuser=0 Take it from the mess in his office, that Stan Drunkenmiller is focused. Chaos provides clarity, the one thing that makes you consider what's' really important... No room for sentimentality, or bourgeois norms still I wonder if he is right about China. Can we trust their GDP numbers??.. The casual viewer will suppose that …

Early Call on OIL Services (XES)

There was a lot of inaugural enthusiasm the last few days, and relief that the ceremony come off without any problems. Meanwhile maybe prices have gotten ahead of themselves. To go down the list here, the analysts are all pounding the table on the CYCLICALS, and when they do that with such a dubious fundamental …

Twenty Zero, Twenty One

End of the year stock market tax loss selling is occuring, probably, but the ongoing shortage in stocks relative to the money available to buy (or borrow) available shares obscures the evidence. The measure of this buying and selling is Accumulation and Distribution, A/D. Before the massive global money pumping mania, these money flows were …

Condensed Version of the late 94′ Bull Market Liftoff

The moment in time where the process will mirror the 94' Bull Market Liftoff, gets a bit closer with each trading day. Caveats: ONE) I do not really expect to see a sharp drop in the A/D line related to year end selling. The A/D line has in the modern context become an indicator of …

Bad news Friday (August 9th, 2020)

Palladium is a precious industrial metal used in automobile catalytic converters. The market for these things applies equally to used cars as well as new. While OEM cats are very good, after market cats are good for maybe a few years. They come in all prices ranges. Some analysts believe these side markets, Palladium and …

Gold Silver : the Trade

Some inquiries about the Silver trade. Refer to recent posts on Silver. The Gold/Silver ratio has dropped and I am sure a lot of experts are saying, "BUT it's way too LOW!!", just as they kept telling us it was way too high at 80. The setup for a big move in Silver is in …

Technicals May 3rd

The wide dash orange line has a lot of history and they were all over it today, and good support/resistance lines often become TREND lines when they grow older. Of more interest is the dot line purple triangle which is pretty wide suggesting a potential of 40 S&P points or 4 SPYDER points if it …