http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx?pag=1&sort=GDP&ord=DESC
Here is a repost of the text, (magenta font) the commentary is dated, from 2014, but the statistics are from 2017. The Ebola crisis (like so many others) has passed? There might be some ideas in here.
There have been many questions about the countries forecast specially the one focusing on the United States of America (USA). They won’t be answered one by one but below you can find some explanation, thoughts and reflections. We are going to keep this as short as possible.
The majority of the economic and demographic data used in the making of the forecasts is widely available by institutions such as the CIA, IMF, UN, USG, etc. You can see the most relevant data at every single country’s page. There is a tiny part of data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as Internet gurus, unsigned reports and others. But all these sources are from the internet and are of public domain for at least a minority. For example, several years ago Dagong, the Chinese ratings agency, published a report analyzing the physical economy of the States comparing it with those of China, Germany and Japan. The conclusion was that the US GDP was something between $5 to $10 trillion instead of $15 trillion as officially reported by the USG. We assume that the official data, especially economic, released by governments is fake, cooked or distorted in some degree. Historically it is well known that the former Soviet Union was making up fake statistics years before its collapse. Western as well as other countries are making up their numbers today to conceal their real state of affairs. We are sure that many people out there can find government statistics in their own countries that by their own personal experience are hard to believe or are so optimistic that may belong to a different country.
[If anything the US is more of a third world nation than it was, complete with it’s own reality show third world “dictator”. You just have to ask yourself how much of that show is real, and how many of those security clearances are real, and well, god bless the deep state for looking out for the rest of us…]
Despite the numeric data “quantity” there is a “quality” model which has not a direct translation into numeric data. The 2014 strain of Ebola has a death rate of 50-60% but try to imagine what would happen if there is a pandemic of Ebola with hundreds of thousands or millions infected with the virus. So far the few cases of Ebola-infected people have “enjoyed” intensive healthcare with anti-viral and breathing assistance but above all with abundant human support by Physicians and nurses. In a pandemic scenario that kind of healthcare won’t be available for the overwhelming number of infected leading to a dramatic increase of the death rate due to the lack of proper healthcare. The “quality” factor is that the death rate could increase to 80-90% in a pandemic scenario from the stated 50-60% rate. The figure itself is not important what is relevant is the fact that the scenario can evolve beyond the initial conditions from a 50% death toll to more than 90%. By the way, no pandemic or nuclear war is included in the forecast.
The key element to understand the process that the USA will enter in the upcoming decade is migration. In the past, specially in the 20th century, the key factor that allowed the USA to rise to its colossus status was immigration with the benefits of a demographic expansion supporting the credit expansion and the brain drain from the rest of the world benefiting the States. The collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the standard of living of its population while ending ponzi schemes such as the stock exchange and the pension funds. The population will be hit so badly by a full array of bubbles and ponzi schemes that the migration engine will start to work in reverse accelerating itself due to ripple effects thus leading to the demise of the States.
[Increasing volatility {more on this later} will destroy the Federal Reserves carefully crafted and micromanaged monetary system, (if you look at charts of the Nikkei during the lost decades you get a sense of how bulls and bears trade positions for extended periods, the turns often came at official changes in currency policy, or the “carry trade”, and a resetting of the forex benchmarks. Some analysts like to use Japan as an example of where highly sophisticated monetary policy might take us, though Japan has a very large economy, they are a somewhat isolated economy which makes lots of tradeoffs with its people, who really accept a lot more middle class poverty than many Americans would be comfortable embracing, though of course our real poor have no rivals in the industrial world, in great part due to our racial profile). The US is probably less at risk of a “populist” takeover of the levers of power, (in the UK for instance they actually allowed a public vote on Brexit. Then the “parliamentary” government, which allows all sorts of riffraff to have a voice, has a pretty good shot at making it stick.) Our one party system works against that sort of change on two points, because of the theatrical bias of extreme partisan hysterics, Trump used to be a Democrat, now he hugs the flag and screams at Liberals, while embracing the old corporate socialism. while newly elected Democrats undermine the old Liberal or Neoliberal policies in places like Queens. But stop I am confusing myself.
The Fed is controlled by Congress, and Congress is feeling pretty frisky. The other Central Banks around the planet have absolute control, except for populist uprisings they make policy, buy and sell anything they want, and generally inflate the global monetary base with abandon, money which streams into the former Superpower US of A, the NYSE, we are now a third world hot money destination, or more sanguinely, we are where China was a few decades ago, a wild west of economic deregulation. Irony that a country with a centrally planned economy could be a capitalist hub of unrestrained growth without financial or environmental regulation, and no trade unions either. Not quite true but regulation in China is more like a Nun with a ruler using a whack on the knuckles. The US is not a centrally controlled economy except for the kindness of strangers, the rest of the world still cooperates, and we cooperate along with them, by making them our trading partners.
This unseen situation for the States will develop itself in a cascade pattern with unprecedented and devastating effects for the economy. Jobs offshoring will surely end with many American Corporations relocating overseas thus becoming foreign Corporations!!!! We see a significant part of the American population migrating to Latin America
[Yes everyone has the Mexico problem backwards. Americans trying to escape higher taxes, lower standards of living and a general erosion of freedoms long for a new frontier, the vast arable land, where a policeman can be bought for a few dollars, and the mana is in manana. The process began at the Alamo, the California land grants, under the auspice of Manifest Destiny. We are a sprawling ant-like nation…]
and Asia while migration to Europe – suffering a similar illness – won’t be relevant. Nevertheless the death toll will be horrible. Take into account that the Soviet Union’s population was poorer than the Americans nowadays or even then. The ex-Soviets suffered during the following struggle in the 1990s with a significant death toll and the loss of national pride. Might we say “Twice the pride, double the fall”? Nope. The American standard of living is one of the highest, far more than double of the Soviets while having added a services economy that will be gone along with the financial system. When pensioners see their retirement disappear in front of their eyes and there are no servicing jobs you can imagine what is going to happen next. At least younger people can migrate. Never in human history were so many elders among the population. In past centuries people were lucky to get to their 30s or 40s. The American downfall is set to be far worse than the Soviet Union’s one. A confluence of crisis with a devastating result.
The Demographic crisis in the former Soviet Union countries has extended for over two decades, if we accept that it ended early in this decade (2010s). The demographic crisis will hit the World in the near future and is projected to last between three and eight decades more or less depending on technological breakthrough and environmental issues. The aftermath is more likely a frozen picture with the population numbers staying the same for a very, very long period of time. The countries forecast population numbers do reflect birth/deaths but also migratory movements. Many countries are going to increase their gross population due to immigration while their native population may shrink.
These comparisons of the US to the old Soviet Union are fruitless really, we won the Cold War, and now Putin is dictator of a third world country with nuclear weapons, part of the axis of evil, Russia, Iran and North Korea, China is our new capitalist friend, I don’t think there is any point in disputing these facts until something arises to physically move us from this general observation. We have managed in the Middle East to push the border of radical Islam all the way back to Tehran. We now export oil and the Saudi’s are a useless appendage of an old 20th century economic policy. We no longer need the Petro Dollar. Or perhaps even the Zionist state?
Over the past two thousand years we have witnessed the Western civilization built around the Mediterranean Sea shifting to Northern Europe and then by the mid 20th century shifting to an Atlantic axis to finally get centered into the States in the past 30 years. The next move will see the civilization being centered in Asia with Russia and China on top. Historically a change in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is rarely highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities happened in Europe many people unable to accept the new paradigm killed themselves. They killed themselves by a psychological factor. This is not mainstream but it is true. A new crisis joins old, well known patterns with new ones.
Sorry to disappoint many of you with our forecast. It is getting worse and worse every year since the beginning of the pre-crisis in 2007. It is already said that this website is non-profit, built on spare time and we provide our information and services AS IS without further explanations and/or guarantees. We are not linked to any government in any way, shape or form. We are not a death or satanic cult or arms dealers as some BS is floating around the internet on this topic. Take into account that the forecast is nothing more than a model whether flawed or correct. It is not God’s word or a magic device that allows to foresee the future.
Sunday, October 26th, 2014
The Fed keeps raising interest rates and waiting like the economy was a loaf of bread. Outside the window of the bakery shop the ROW investors have lined up. You think Americans are dependent on stock market prices? If the 1% is ready to take the bread what does that leave the rest of us? We all know the real economy was put on the back burner ten years ago. Now some things are changing, the proposed direct investment policy that is behind projects like the Green New Deal. The GOP will probably show up with cash stimulus as their counter move. It may be good to be poor the next few decades which is to say things will suck. America is built on culture, we export our culture around the planet. During the 30’s Hollywood’s palliative to poverty was a parade of top hats and tails, guys and gals with no problems but LOVE. This time around the saga of the rich might not sell, and people seldom want to see their own condition, but someone who is better off than they are? Well maybe only the rich will go to the movies to see how well the poor are doing.
Unlike the really good times this rise in stock market prices is indicative of the disease of monetary inflation. It takes more dollars to buy something, and that applies to stocks and bonds. What I am trying to accomplish here with my crude charts is show the thing playing out in the various markets. When I look at the charts in aggregate I can see it anyway. It may be that life in Russia will suck a little less, after the fall, but the cultural transition that moving East entails, may not justify the expense. And if you are really poor, this is the place to be. Or Mexico.
Duck and Cover 