Hedging America

EFA Fund Summary:

The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure large- and mid-capitalization equity market performance of developed markets outside of the U.S. and Canada.

Top Holdings

NameSymbol% Assets
Nestle SANESN2.08%
ASML Holding NVASML1.99%
Roche Holding AGROG1.61%
Novartis AGNOVN1.18%
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SEMC.PA1.17%
Toyota Motor Corp72031.06%
AstraZeneca PLCAZN.L1.04%
Novo Nordisk A/S Class BNOVO B0.97%
Unilever PLCULVR.L0.83%

Article: “ASML is a leading indicator for AI”. Novartis manufactures Covid 19 vaccine. Okay the boilerplate is always shiny on this side of the bull market. This trade is called “hedging” America. I’ve said here before the biggest threat to the Fed is managing government spending (monetization) and the money supply during a period of counter indicative political blowback.. This never happens in Europe…(they only have wars) Despite the UK pulling out of the EU the monetary system hums along. This is installment one, installment two is Gold, or a review of the precious metal and finally installment three, the downside in Treasury bonds.

The difference between a Treasury note and a Treasury bond may be as simple as the difference between a Retail Money Market Fund and a Treasury Money Market Fund in 2008 in a period of deflation.

Assuming this rather large triangle is a continuation signal, it appears the entire history of the index has been leading up to this, then we could assume 1500 points of range to be applied to the breakout at 2400, or 4000 roughly. The “tentative” objective is not likely to remain open for long, all that is required to fix the objective is a three box reversal. However should the index manage to push higher that will open the ceiling a bit more. Notice the low in 2009 was not lower than the low in 2003, which is the case in the US indexes.

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